Andy Ruiz vs. Anthony Joshua II: The Fight Site Staff Predictions
Photo courtesy of Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images
The majority of combat sports fan were surprised on June 1st of this year when Anthony Joshua succumbed to the fast raids of Andy Ruiz.
The rematch, which takes place tonight (ring-walk at 20:45 GMT according to more than one source) should be one of the most intriguing heavyweight battles for a long time, at least since the bout between Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder.
Can A.J make the adjustments necessary to avoid the fast hands of the defending champ? Has Ruiz come in too heavy? Did he catch lightning in a bottle last time? Was there something wrong with Joshua going into the first fight?
The most interesting boxing matches are the ones where there are many questions to be answered that we cannot possibly solve until we’ve seen the bout take place. This is one of those fights.
So without further ado, let The Fight Site staff have a guess. Because for a fight like this, that’s all we can do.
Kyle McLachlan: I honestly cannot pick a winner here. My guess is that Joshua is hoping to overhaul his style completely and attempt a mid-career reinvention a la Wladimir Klitschko. Economic movement, a gameplan based around the jab, and clinching for dear life whenever Ruiz gets close. Joshua appears to have shed a lot of weight, but I can’t shake off the feeling that he will always struggle with cardio and tactics that involve a lot of thinking and movement.
On the contrary, Ruiz appears to have come in heavy, but all training footage we’ve seen of him in the build-up to this shows he is still quick, and technically he is likely to be exactly the same guy: a smart, probing pressure fighter with counter punching ability and an innate toughness that saw him through first time round.
I am almost certain this fight will look much different to their first merry-go-round but the biggest question for me is this: what happens when Ruiz starts to touch Joshua up? Because for me, the biggest answer I came away with in their first fight is that for all the talk of A.J loving the fight game, what he really loves is beating people up. For all the technical issues that were exposed first time (poor defence, complete lack of inside game, a lazy jab) the proof in the pudding was Joshua capitulating whenever Ruiz threw back at him.
Critics of that theory will point to Joshua recovering from Wladimir Klitschko’s right hand being bounced off his dome, but the veteran ex-champ was largely passive after that success and allowed Joshua to regain his confidence.
Ruiz stayed on the Watford man and the finishing sequence came when he immediately fired back after Joshua landed his best punch in many rounds. The defending champ didn't like that and gave up the ghost almost immediately.
So for all talk of Ruiz being heavy and all whispers of Joshua’s tactics based on his new physique, the only question I need answered is this: Does Anthony Joshua have it in him to come through a tough fight? Because if the answer is no, all other questions are necessary.
My prediction: Anthony Joshua wins a unanimous decision that may be controversial due to negative tactics, nothing eye-catching, and Ruiz having the few moments of aesthetic success.
Lukasz Fenrych: The first fight ended up being such a battering that it’s easy to see this as a foregone conclusion: big holes in Joshua’s game were exposed and it’s difficult to see how he can have improved his entire game enough to overcome that in the short time he’s given himself.
We should, however, not forget that the reasons most of us picked Joshua first time round are still valid- Joshua did pick off Ruiz as he was coming in once before he started taking fire and if Ruiz had been just a touch more seriously hurt the fight could easily have finished then and there. Add to that while AJ’s jab and defensive footwork aren’t fantastic, they’re probably enough combined with his enormous size advantage to make things difficult for Ruiz if Joshua decides to fight purely defensively behind that jab.
That said, difficult is not the same as impossible and it seems unlikely that Joshua has fixed up his inside and pocket game anything like as well as he will need to in the moments Ruiz does get in close. Even in his pre-fight interviews, he’s talked more about mobility and the jab than what he’ll do if those fail him, and while it’s dangerous to read too much into that kind of thing it doesn’t do much to combat the idea that Joshua just doesn’t given enough thought to that side of his game. So if Ruiz does get inside we’re likely to see Joshua flailing and panicking, again.
In summary, I would not at all be shocked to see Joshua spend the majority of the time winning a fairly cagey fight before Ruiz gets inside the range of his jab, pushes the pace to where Joshua is not comfortable, and knocks him out again. Andy Ruiz by late KO
Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti: Coming in lighter for this rematch I expect Anthony Joshua to try and fight long and very cautiously in the early rounds. He will probably win them staying behind his jab and circling a lot. Andy Ruiz may enter this bout heavier than in the previous fight but he seems to be in good shape and doesn’t appear to have lost any of his explosiveness. I think Ruiz’s hand speed and power will be just enough to fight at the pace he wants if he rocks A.J before the middle of the fight. Joshua probably wants to perform like he did against Parker, but I don’t think he has the skills to do that against Ruiz for 12 rounds without getting hurt by ‘The Destroyer’ at some point. I am picking Andy Ruiz by eighth round knockout
Taylor Higgins: The big thing for me is whether Joshua has been able to make significant changes to how he approaches Ruiz in the short time frame since the first fight. Even if he has done so, and works behind the jab with caution, how will he react when Ruiz does eventually catch him? Does AJ have an effective strategy for managing his gas tank should the fight go into deep waters? We’ve never seen him adopt a completely different strategy before, or fight in a way he’s not used to. There’s just too many questions for me to pick Joshua here.
However, there are ways I can definitely see Joshua winning this. Let’s not ignore that he did have some success in the first fight, and although many are reading too much into Ruiz’s weight gain I also think it’ll be interesting to see whether the extra bulk affects his hand and foot speed should the fight go down the stretch. If Joshua does successfully adopt a more cautious approach and the fight goes into the second half, I can see Ruiz’s hand-speed faltering which could diminish his threat. That could be decisive because if this goes to points, it’s hard to look past Joshua. He’s the star and with so much riding on this, would you be surprised to see some questionable judging?
But ultimately, I just haven’t seen enough evidence that Joshua is versatile enough to change his approach and negate Ruiz’s advantages. For that reason, I’m picking Andy Ruiz by TKO.
Hamady Diagne: AJ obviously put a lot of work to get in the perfect physical shape. He came in lighter, probably wanting to get on his bike this time around, keep his distance and stick and move. He knows he can’t allow Ruiz Jr to get close. But I don’t predict that he will be able to change his fundamentals in just six months.
In my opinion, Ruiz Jr is still way faster, and still a better boxer. He will be able to force a fight on the inside again, and find his counters. I expect him to work the body even more to try and break Joshua’s will again.
AJ’s totally capable of hurting Ruiz early like he did in the first fight, but I expect him to be more cautious to try and drag it out to the later rounds. Thing is, I don’t see Ruiz punching himself out, and he’s got the tank to last the distance. I think the fight will go 12 rounds, with Ruiz edging it.
And still…Andy Ruiz Jr by decision
Scott Graveson: I suspect that Joshua, whilst certainly coming in lighter than in the first bout, will still have lingering mental effects from his first loss. The invincibility has been well and truly shattered, and whilst Ruiz has seemingly put more weigh on (though I doubt it’s as much as the scales suggest) he is still the man to have broken that invincibility.
The champion has the tools to do it again, and in similar fashion. My only real concern is the impact (referee) Pabon will play in the bout, though I suspect he will be irrelevant in the end. Andy Ruiz by stoppage
Rob Tebbut: Without sitting on the fence, I don’t know how anyone can pick a winner in this fight with any degree of certainty.
Sticking solely on the in-ring breakdown (I feel a mental evaluation of both will take considerably more than a paragraph to break down!) I feel it’s important for Anthony Joshua to be positive in the fight.
I understand the need to slim down, which is something that many have called for since he laboured against Carlos Takam, but I feel abandoning what has made him successful—being an aggressive, explosive puncher—would be a grave mistake.
Anthony Joshua is at his best when letting his hands go, and I feel his best chance of winning is to be aggressive. Not reckless, not gung-ho, but aggressive. He must not surrender the middle of the ring (and he did in the first fight and previously against Alexander Povetkin) and allow Ruiz to get in a rhythm on the front-foot. Joshua must charge Ruiz for the real estate with a solid jab, without being overly heavy on his front foot.
I believe Ruiz in the superior technician, so a fleet-footed outside boxing display will eventually lead to Joshua’s demise in my opinion. Ruiz must start fast and not allow Joshua to get confidence in the fight. Make him remember that night at Madison Square Garden. The feints and pressure with the feet gave Ruiz success in the opening two rounds, and I expect him to do the same in the rematch. He will look to punch with Joshua in the exchanges (as we’ve seen the likes of Dillian Whyte and Povetkin do in the past) and will see that as his best shot at winning the fight.
Personally, I see a low-key opening couple of rounds before both men start to exchange. I am not—and have never been—sold on Joshia’s composure when under fire, and unless he has been able to make drastic mental changes in the return, I see eventually succumbing to Ruiz once again, somewhere in between rounds 7-10
Mat Fenrych: It’s the first real test of whether A.J can learn, isn’t it.
He’s shown the ability to add new bits to his game from fight-to-fight, but can he actually implement a wholesale strategy change for the same opponent?
Ruiz won’t be slower, and he will still know how to close distance: I’d favour him more clearly if I weren’t more concerned about the weight gain.
Still I reckon a TKO 6 if he manages to catch up with a slightly more mobile Joshua.