Is Jake Wentzel an NCAA Title Contender?

Photo courtesy of the University of Pittsburgh Athletics

Like Ian Parker, the subject of my last breakthrough piece, Pittsburgh’s Jake Wentzel has had a good but not great career. This year, though, he’s really put it all together, pulling one of the biggest upsets of the year over 2019 national champion Mekhi Lewis of Virginia Tech and capturing the ACC 165 lb title. This sparked some friendly debate about whether he is a legitimate national title contender; this article will look at the arguments for both sides of that question.

Why He’s Not

The obvious reason to doubt Wentzel is that he just can’t hang with the best wrestlers from the neutral position. He gives up his legs far too easily to force good leg attackers into the low-scoring, mat-based matches he thrives in. Joe Lee of Penn State, whose results this year have been fairly middling, picked him apart last year while in redshirt. Why wouldn’t top contenders like Alex Marinelli and Travis Wittlake have the same success? Wentzel’s top game could be something those guys have to worry about, but they can just choose neutral. Even if you think his defense poses a problem for some guys, 2 seed Anthony Valencia can drive opponents straight off their feet, no battle on the leg needed.

Why He Is

It’s fair to say the neutral position is Wentzel’s worst. But he can be tricky to finish on, and it’s actually not a given that everyone will rack up multiple takedowns on him. His head-hands defense has improved, and he’s gotten both better and more committed with his underhook in slowing guys down. His defense once opponents do get to his legs is good, especially when they go head-outside. One thing about this kind of game is it can take a lot of feel and experience to really get proficient with, and losses he took earlier in his career were part of the learning process. Believe it or not, those two takedowns he gave up to Lee is more than he’s given up this entire season (one, to Thomas Bullard).

Why He’s Not

Another thing holding Wentzel back is his lack of neutral offense. You can probably count on one hand how many times he’s taken a shot and gotten the takedown in college; his takedowns are almost all counters. He mostly makes it work, but it really cuts down on his chances of winning all five matches at NCAAs. He can’t really come back on anyone if he finds himself trailing, which makes his margin for error tiny. After giving up the first takedown against Bullard, for example, he didn’t come close to catching back up and was never really in the match. Considering he’ll have tough matches from the second round on, having multiple paths to victory would really bolster his chances. Instead, he’ll really have to walk the tightrope just to get to the finals.

Why He Is

Wentzel doesn’t necessarily need to shoot to score. For one thing, his advantage on the mat means opponents know they need to beat him on the feet, which plays right into his scrambling and counters. One problem with a counter-based game is if the opponent doesn’t come at him he might not be able to force things, but in most matches that won’t be an issue. He has taken down some of the best wrestlers in the country this year off of their shots. He held Kennedy Monday on his back, for example, and hit a nice re-shot against 2019 national champ Mekhi Lewis. He also score with his underhooks, usually by getting to a bodylock, and does it far more consistently than most wrestlers do with upper-body takedowns.

Why He’s Not

Wentzel’s top game is supposedly his trump, but it couldn’t bail him out against Bullard. If your best weapon isn’t even enough to scare the guy out of choosing bottom, how dangerous is it? And while he does often ride good wrestlers for an entire period, he doesn’t often score back points, limiting the damage he can do on the mat. Being good with a leg in doesn’t turn a mid-level wrestler into a national champion. Moreover, opponents will have him scouted for the national tournament, making his mat wrestling less of a problem.

Why He Is

It’s true that he doesn’t always dominate from the top position, but more often than not he does. His matches with Monday and especially Lewis show the way his top game can transform a match and help him beat guys who are better on paper. Besides the riding time point, it can drain the opponent, and it also takes time off the clock. Had he continued, Mekhi Lewis would’ve needed multiple takedowns to tie the match and just two minutes left to do it.

Besides that, he is actually fairly potent with his turns, scoring on very good wrestlers like Tanner Skidgel of Navy and Jake Keating of Virginia. Like Michigan State’s Drew Hughes, who is arguably the best leg rider in the country, he often looks like he’s falling off to the right side, but that’s when he’s at his most dangerous. While his struggles with Bullard are concerning, I think to some extent Bullard has been able to make adjustments after several meetings in college; none of Wentzel’s likely opponents at nationals have gotten to feel him before.

The Draw

Wentzel begins his tournament against Evan Barczak of Drexel, whom he should beat. In the second round, he’ll have Nebraska’s Peyton Robb, seeded 14th, which is already a losable match. Robb is solid in all positions and has wins over some tough opponents. Robb did struggle on the mat with Minneosta’s Andrew Sparks early in the year, which is an encouraging sign. In the quarters his most likely opponent is 6 seed Keegan O’Toole from Missouri, who seems very good but is untested. Working in Wentzel’s favor is that O’Toole is young and small for the weight, and his bottom game may be an area of weakness. On the other hand, O’Toole is skilled in a wide variety of positions and can outscramble almost anyone. Other possible quarterfinal opponents are Kennedy Monday and Cam Amine, both matches in which I would favor Wentzel.

If seeds hold, his likely semifinal opponents are Anthony Valencia, Ethan Smith, or Travis Wittlake. All present problems, but also some reason for optimism. Valencia might just run Wentzel off his feet on a few double legs, but he has struggled on the mat and against solid, grimy wrestlers in the past. Smith is a great leg attacker but has been better getting to the leg than finishing, and Wentzel can chew you up if you don’t finish. Wittlake is perhaps the best of the bunch, but he’s also the lowest seed because of his loss at the Big 12 tournament and doesn’t seem to be 100%.

Should Wentzel reach the final, he might wrestle someone like Alex Marinelli, Mekhi Lewis, or Shane Griffith. Marinelli was the top seed at this weight last year and probably the best wrestler on paper, but he looked iffy at the Big Ten tournament and probably isn’t fully healthy. The same is true of Lewis, plus it’s worth noting when they wrestled in the dual Wentzel was winning even before the fateful injury timeout. Griffith might actually be the biggest problem, with his finishing ability and mat game. However, he really hasn’t proven himself against great competition in college yet. He also got ridden for over two minutes by Anthony Valencia, who is not known for his top work. Like Wentzel himself, I don’t know if Griffith can force the issue on the feet.

The Verdict

I don’t expect Jake Wentzel to win the national title this year. But is he a contender? When I dismissed his chances a month ago, I thought he would really have to walk a tightrope to win even 2 or 3 matches at NCAAs, and that hasn’t changed. But now I’m starting to see the other side. I can see the weaknesses of some of his rivals, and why it’s not so crazy to think he might beat them. While the odds of him successfully running the gauntlet are low, the odds of successfully completing each step aren’t so bad. Compared to wrestlers at other weights, who might cruise to the semis before hitting opponents that will probably flatten them (think Austin DeSanto at 133 or Matt Stencel at 285), Wentzel’s position doesn’t look so bad. Above all else, it’s been a crazy year in a crazy sport, and it would be a bad idea to get overconfident in ruling out possibilities. He could very well lose to Robb on Thursday night. But Jake Wentzel is a title contender.