Naoya Inoue vs Stephen Fulton: The Fight Site Boxing Preview
Photo by KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP via Getty Images
We’ve got a huge week of boxing upcoming, and while everyone’s eyes will be on Spence vs Crawford on Saturday, we’ve got an equally high-level clash on Tuesday in Japan as Naoya Inoue jumps up to super-bantamweight to fight Stephen Fulton Jr. Before we start, bear the timezones in mind - Tuesday night in Tokyo is morning in the US and afternoon in Europe, so if you want to watch it, plan accordingly.
Both fighters are taking big, big chances here. Inoue is- for the first time in years- the challenger,moving up in weight to take on a strong champion. He is, however, the big name, and Fulton has given up home advantage and travelled to Japan, putting those belts on the line in his opponent’s back yard.
Naoya Inoue vs Stephen Fulton: The Breakdown
So, then. Inoue is the p4p great, a proven elite fighter with unseemly power, Fulton is bigger, yes, but even with the jump in weight Inoue is likely to have the power advantage. And Fulton is less proven, has struggled more, and is newer to the top levels of the sport. Where, then, do his chances lie?
On a broad level, this may turn out to be a battle of depth vs polish. Inoue is slicker, makes fewer mistakes, and has unnerring accuracy and timing- but Fulton, probably, has more tools to work with, more areas he’s really comfortable in. Because he’s comfortable in all of them.
You see, Naoya Inoue has a secret: he isn’t really a pressure fighter. At least, not by nature. He can do it, of course- he’s had to learn, since so few of his opponents actually want to engage with him. And he’s pretty good at it. He’s got to nearly everyone he’s ever fought, so it can’t be that much of an issue.
The problem is, though, that most of the fighter’s he’s been chasing down were either not near this level, or front-foot fighters themselves spooked into going backwards by his power. They didn’t have the natural skill at doing it that might have exploited the gaps Inoue may have there. Fulton is different.
What may come up, then is this: Inoue on the front foot is composed, patient, accurate and, when the moment comes, ferocious. But he’s a little… well, basic. His footwork, so accurate when at close range, becomes a bit less so. You can see it against Paul Butler- yes, he got his man out of there eventually. But Butler was able to survive 11 rounds he realistically should not have because Inoue consistently left space for him to circle out into. Inoue really did not cut the ring off well at all. The normal alternative to that is to fill that space with punches- but Inoue was curiously reluctant to do that either. It was all straight punches, with no hooks and no angled steps to close that space.
Instead, he’d mostly follow Butler, moving in with a jab then a reaching right hand. Some of the time he’d get there fast enough to get off a combination before Butler escaped - as for the finish- but often he wouldn’t. In that fight, it was enough, and would have been without the finish, since Butler was doing no work of his own. But Fulton may well be able to get the upper hand with his jab, and take the lead by popping and moving. Against Daniel Roman, he was consistently able to anticipate his opponent’s raids, circle out as he came, and punish him as he went past. Inoue is more composed, but in front-foot mode he has made some of those same mistakes.
If that happens, Inoue has two options- increase the pace of his pressure, or persuade Fulton to come to him. The latter isn’t particularly likely - it’s just not something he’s ever done, and realistically risks being even more outmaneuvered. The former is doable, but tricky. Inoue has gotten so used to just walking to and finding his opponents when he needs to that, on the odd occasions when he does have to get them to come at him, he’s only partially developed the toolset to do it.
It was another thing seen against Butler, but also in his much older fight against David Carmona, which went the distance. In both fights, against opponents committed to staying distant, he’d occasionally stop, stick his head forward, and seek to get them to throw at him. But he didn’t do much of the playing with timing and range to actually get them to throw. Not too many foot-feints or short steps into and out of range, not a lot of feinting or throwaway punches of his own.
Occasionally, especially against Butler, he would raid in, put himself in deliberately awkward positions, throw a shot or two and leave- but only a couple of times in the fight. Then he went back to following, jabbing, right hands, unloading on the odd occasion he did get it to the ropes, until he got the finish.
All that sounds very negative. What does need to be noted is it only applies if Fulton does win the jab battle and get Inoue chasing without landing - and that’s far from a guarantee. For starters, while Inoue does get into the trap of going straight forward, Fulton can get into the trap of going straight back. It’s usually taken fighters much more aggressive than Inoue to get him to the ropes- Figueroa and Danny Roman - but it is a potential weakness to target.
The other thing is Inuoe has a superb jab and very fast hands, and even with a size advantage it’s not going to be simple for Fulton to win that battle. Most likely, to get the advantage, he’s going to have to engage in some in-and-out raiding of his own first to get Inoue to bite and move forward- and that comes with risks.
Where Inoue’s big weakness is a comparative (we’re talking the fine margins of the elite, here) lack of depth, Fulton’s is the transition. He’s excellent in each phase of the fight- but he makes mistakes moving between them. When he moves in, you’ll sometimes see him ducking forward, especially as he engages a clinch. As he moves back, he will - not always, or even often these days, but often enough- stand straight up with his chin in the air.
That, against the most accurate and powerful puncher he’s ever faced, could cost him. Inoue is an excellent counterpuncher- and one thing about counterpunchers is that they don’t always need actual punches to counter. If they’re really sharp they just need to see certain moves, and intercept them. Inoue can certainly do that. If he sees Fulton getting himself off-balance with any regularity whatsoever, at some point he’s going to throw a punch into that moment.
The other risk for Fulton is this- if your gameplan really relies on the jab, your opponent can put you off it by countering that punch. And that, Inoue can certainly do. Fulton will probably need to remain fleet-footed at all times- and he isn’t always. It’s not normally a mistake to occasionally step in on a jab to force your opponent back, keep them guessing and vary the questions posed- but Inoue is fast and sharp enough to exploit it when he does. So he’ll need to be careful.
That’s the broad strokes of the battle, but this is a very complex matchup, and there’s a lot more to look out for. Let’s take a quick skim over other potential points of interest:
Another potential mark in Fulton’s favour is that even if Inoue does get him into the places he wants him - either pushing him to the ropes or getting Fulton to engage in the pocket in center-ring- Fulton can do both to a very high level. Brandon Figueroa, certainly, is not as good a fighter as Inoue overall - but he’s a pressure and clinch specialist, and Fulton was able to match him there. Against Roman, meanwhile, when not drawing his opponent on he’d step in with quick raids of his own, then spin out and make him turn, clip him as he did then disengage. Inoue will certainly land more of his own work in those situations- but his game isn’t really built to stop Fulton doing that, just to punish him.
Inoue is also not really an inside fighter too much at all. That is to say, he can and will deliver punches in close, and he’s very punishing when he does- but it’s short exchanges and then get out. Fulton can do that- but he can also push in and make it a messy, clinchy fight if he needs. While he’s vulnerable going in and out, once in there, Inoue will find it difficult to get much done. He’s a fighter who likes it clean, and isn’t wild about physical shoving matches.
On the other hand, though, that very confidence in his abilities may also play against the champion. He’s so comfortable in his ability to fight anywhere that sometimes he’ll just let fights go wherever they go, without seeking to impose his own plan. He’ll almost certainly not intend to do that here- if he feels danger while making his raids, he’ll look to stay outside, and if being outside sees him peppered with jabs, he’ll push in and try to keep it there instead. But instinct is instinct, and it may well happen that he sees an opening, lunges on it, is caught short by Inoue’s defence, and gets punished.
Because that, ultimately, is the final big string in Inoue’s bow- his defence. Fulton’s is very good- apart from those aforementioned occasional errors, he has excellent head movement, a superb active guard, and solid escape footwork. A complete package, with the ability to layer defensive skills on top of each other when needed.
But Inoue’s is another level entirely. He’s almost impossible to draw off-balance, and when in close his foot placement is often perfect and his escape footwork when needed both rapid and balanced. His head movement and positioning is brilliant. It’s an aspect that some viewers miss, because he doesn’t seem to be moving his head very much - and yet he’s so often in positions where he seems to be open to his opponents punches but, when they throw, they miss Yes, he can be caught- by someone like Nonito Donaire, one of the best punchers of the last 20 years. Fulton will land on him, for certain- but he’ll have to work hard to do so, throw layers of punches, and that will leave him open in places.
So, that’s how it may stand. Fulton will have to do more to impose his game- but he has more to work with, and more options to turn to if one gameplan goes awry. Inuoe has less tools in the toolkit, and the weight may be a concern, but the tools he has are impeccable. It’s a finely balanced fight, and a very difficult one to predict. Don’t be surprised, though, to see Fulton eke out a decision if Inoue can’t find that KO.
The rest of the card
The co-main is a featherweight clash between Robeisy Ramirez and Satoshi Shimizu for Ramirez’ WBO world title. Realistically, this is a bit of an exhibition- Shimizu is a 37-year-old whose 12 fights have been fought mostly on the Japanese scene, with his one venture onto the Asian-regional scene leading to his sole loss, against Joe Noynay. He’s not a bad fighter, by the looks of things, but he doesn’t look to have anything like the depth of attacking skill, or the speed, to trouble the superb Ramirez.
Beyond that it’s a stack of Japanese fighters, all of whom I’m unfamiliar with. But Japanese undercards are often entertaining, so if you’re up, it may be worth your time.