Regis Prograis vs. Josh Taylor: Roundtable

Boxing fans are in for a rare treat this Saturday, as two undefeated divisional elites in their prime face off for the chance to win the WBSS Ali Trophy and become the unified light-welterweight world champion.

Regis Prograis and Josh Taylor have been on a collision course since the announcement of the World Boxing Super Series tournament at 140lbs, and their performances to reach the final have only built anticipation for a showdown. Both men are a cut above their peers at light-welterweight, but heading into Saturday night there’s little to choose between them. Prograis-Taylor is a genuine pick’em fight between two fringe P4P-talents, which poses some fascinating stylistic matchups to analyse.

As a result The Fight Site staff decided to explore the possibilities of how this final will play out, look at the games of both fighters in greater detail, and individually offer our picks for who we think will triumph on Saturday night.

Taylor Higgins: The first question I’ll ask is - where do both fighters ideally want this fight to take place? And furthermore, how effective do you think they will be at dictating where they want it?

Lukasz Fenrych: I’ll start with Prograis, largely because his preferred battleground is, in my view at least, much easier to pin down. While he showed against Relikh, and somewhat against Flanagan, that he can fight on the outside and backfoot if he feels the need, his career so far has mostly been that of a man who wants to close the distance, take it into the pocket as quickly as he can, and use his head movement and superbly balanced footwork to throw heavy punches from all sorts of bizarre angles. One thing to watch out for though is that while he likes to fight in close, it’s not necessarily close close that he’s looking for- he likes being close enough to his opponent to lean around if he can, but he doesn’t often punch in the clinch, and if one looks like happening he’d rather position himself shoulder-to-chest and immediately look to shove to gain separation.

Taylor: I’m in agreement that Prograis’ favoured approach is being aggressive in the pocket, moving his upper body and looking to throw punches from unorthodox angles. But Prograis is also a cerebral and versatile fighter who is able to change his game mid-fight - when Kiryl Relikh began to time Prograis with straight right hands in their semi-final, he quickly switched to countering on the back foot and laid traps with impressive success. Similarly, Prograis reeled in his aggression in favour of a more conservative, calm approach against Flanagan when he stuck behind his jab and landed sharp counters. In this particular fight though, I think that Prograis will ideally want to keep Taylor in the pocket where he has advantages on the inside. He’s deceptively strong there, although Taylor is the larger of the two and may surprise us with his physicality on the inside.

Lukasz: On to Taylor (Josh, not Higgins): as I hinted earlier, I think his preferred range in this fight is going to be a little more difficult to pin down. Normally, he also likes to close range and work his opponent’s body while taking small steps around them (as opposed to Prograis’ upper-body lean), but he tends to spend less time there than Prograis in his normal gameplan and more time boxing from further, so I suspect he may decide that simply boxing at range and trying to make Prograis repeatedly come to him is the way to go.

Taylor: That’s very likely to be Taylor’s strategy, which poses two interesting questions - will Prograis look to close range in response, and if not, will he be able to outbox the Scot from the outside? Let’s start with the first question. Whilst Prograis’ foot speed means he closes the distance very quickly, he’s not particularly adept at cutting off the ring and leaves exit routes for opponents - Terry Flanagan was able to pivot out when under pressure with surprising ease, as an example. Although Prograis’ use of hooks allows him to corral opponents, he doesn’t have many tools to keep them there; ideally Taylor will want to circle out or clinch rather than let himself be pinned down, and that’s something I believe he can do. Even if Prograis does manage to trap Taylor and force him to fight in the pocket, the Tartan Tornado is capable of holding his own there. He’s got real craft on the inside.

Lukasz: Yeah, I tend to agree, I don’t think Prograis will be keeping Taylor in close range as much as he probably wants to. Where he may have success though is as Taylor disengages. It’s not every time, but when an opponent has chosen when to close the distance rather than Taylor, he has shown a tendency to get himself back out of range as quickly as possible rather than taking care while doing so- there are moments early in the fight with Baranchyk when Baranchyk leaps in and Taylor’s move to get out is with hands down, head up and off balance.

Taylor: That’s a great observation and certainly something that Prograis should be looking to exploit. Going back to the issue I raised earlier - if Prograis is unable to keep Taylor at close range frequently, can he win the fight by boxing Taylor on the outside? I’ve been thinking about this the past few days, and ultimately decided that this is what my pre-fight prediction hinges on. I’m going to say that Prograis can, the reason being that I think Taylor will rely on the jab in order to maintain distance which will afford Prograis’ plenty of countering opportunities, due to his excellent upper body movement. Whilst Prograis is able to be timed when he’s closing distance aggressively, to me he’s looked more defensively responsible when boxing at range. What’s your opinion on this?

Kyle: I think Taylor can actually limit Prograis’ countering opportunities if he keeps it long. He looks to be the bigger man, and Prograis seems to be predominantly a counter puncher. He’s a smart one, one that processes data and spits it back out with solutions, but the more time Taylor keeps him moving forward and on the end of the jab, the less time Prograis has to actually put a solution in place, even if that computer brain of his will have more time to process. The more Taylor tries to exert himself on Prograis, the more he’ll get hit, and even though he appears to be durable we’ve seen him stung a few times. Do you guys not think Prograis will have less opportunities to do good work if he’s having to go forward?

Taylor: That’s the thing though - Prograis is a natural counterpuncher, and the southpaw-against-southpaw dynamic of this fight will lead to the Scot extensively using his jab. I think that’ll give Prograis plenty of windows to answer back with sharp counters, and believe his speed and athleticism will be enough to nullify Taylor’s reach advantage. We’ve also seen Prograis fight in a more controlled manner against fellow southpaw Terry Flanagan, which demonstrated his ability to box opponents. For all the talk of how well-rounded Josh Taylor is in the buildup to this fight, I think people are underestimating the versatility of Prograis.

Kyle: Absolutely true but my riposte to that is that in comparison to Josh Taylor, Flanagan really wasn’t all that great. He was a tad underrated during his run at 135lbs, but that doesn’t mean he was even legitimately world class, not nearly as versatile as Taylor…in short I don’t think Prograis will be able to remain as composed against Taylor, who has shown he can switch up his approach, and looks to be a big light-welter (whereas Flanagan was a big 135lber) and has already faced superior opposition to Flanagan as well as having a deeper well of amateur experience. I get the comparison, I just think it’s that good of one to make, unless you’re higher on Flanagan than I am. One thing I do want to say, is that Flanagan still looked longer and bigger than Prograis; I won’t be surprised if Taylor looks considerably larger than the New Orleans native.

Taylor: The question of composure is an interesting one - we’ve seen Taylor in the trenches against Viktor Postol, and he showed real grit in that performance. Admittedly there’s no evidence of such from Prograis as he’s never been in real trouble, but the in-ring adjustments he’s made against both Flanagan and Relikh lead me to think that he’ll be able to adapt accordingly. What impressed me most about Prograis wasn’t just the fact that he did adjust, but how comfortable and fluent he looked when employing a different side to his game. Conversely, say Prograis is able to counter Taylor’s jab like I expect; what adjustments can Taylor make? If he doesn’t rely on his jab to keep Prograis at range, the American will close the distance and be able to engage in the pocket. As I mentioned above, do you think Taylor will be able to win the fight from that range? I could see the clinch being an area that Taylor may look to use to his advantage, given the size difference. It’ll be interesting to see whether trainer Shane McGuigan can advise effective in-ring adjustments, which is something I’ve criticised him for struggling with before (see Frampton-Santa Cruz II).

Lukasz: The clinch could be a bit of an x factor in this fight, since neither guy is really someone who wants to fight there. I do agree that if it goes there it’d favour Taylor, not just because he’s bigger but because like I said above when Prograis does find himself there he tends to look to shove out of it rather than punching and while he’s doing that I think Taylor would work the body. So that could be an adjustment we see him make- if Prograis does get close to him quicker than he’s comfortable with, rather than trying to escape, collapsing the space entirely and imposing his physicality.
Overall I’m definitely with Kyle’s thought that Taylor’s best plan, if he can make it stick, is to make Prograis consistently be chasing him. Whether he can is another matter- if Baranczyk, a very crude mover, was able to make him accept close exchanges, then Prograis, who’s both faster and will arrive in position far more ready to actually punch, could cause him serious problems trying to stay away, despite Taylor’s reach advantage.
Another thing to note on that score is that Taylor’s jab doesn’t seem to be all that effective as a defensive tool. He uses it fantastically offensively and to test reactions, but neither Baranczyk nor Postol (admittedly, much longer than Taylor) had much trouble getting past it and in fact Taylor often didn’t bother throwing it at all when they started moving forward. It’s possible that this was just because he was confident in his ability to win exchanges and has it in his pocket if he needs it, but it’s not something I’d want to bank on having not really seen it before.

Kyle: Certainly it will be more interesting if Taylor has to be aggressive (i.e to the earlier point of Taylor’s jab/range game not working as he wants it to) as Prograis will get a lot more opportunities to work. Certainly at range I wasn’t saying it’d be a blowout either, and Prograis is strong as well, he will land sharp single shots even if he’s limited in that regard. But if he can get a lot of work done there and Taylor has to be more aggressive, it’ll be really interesting: certainly Taylor showed a lot of poise in the trenches against Postol, but I seem to remember he looked ragged at times and was stunned on a couple of occasions (complete guess here but I think it might have been the 10th or 11th round, I haven’t watched that fight since I saw it live). But still, I think with a mixed approach and being able to change it up between pressuring and boxing, Taylor should squeak through with a close decision. It’s a tremendous matchup though, and I actually prefer Prograis as a fighter so I’ll be rooting for him, but I’m fairly comfortable Josh Taylor is durable and talented enough to win a decision, so that’s my pick.

Lukasz: I’ve talked a lot about the things Prograis does that can give Taylor trouble, and this is a razor-tight fight with dangers for both men, but ultimately my pick swings to Taylor. Two main reasons for this: first, we’ve talked about Prograis’ ability and willingness to corral opponents when close in with hooks, his unusual but superb head movement and his ability to deliver power from just about anywhere, but we haven’t spoken about what happens if an opponent in that position tries to step around him, not just to get away, but to deliver work of his own. It’s not something we’ve really seen happen yet, and it’ll be dangerous for Taylor to try, but he almost certainly will and if he succeeds it will be very dangerous for Prograis. Your base can be as stable as you like, if you’re leaning way out and get caught with a solid bodyshot the chances are good you’re feeling it.
The second reason is that while Prograis can be ferociously aggressive when he feels like it, he does generally fight in bursts and he is ultimately a counterpuncher. Taylor is more always-on and more interested in leading, so Prograis is likely to be constantly either chasing him, or reacting to what Taylor is doing offensively, there won’t be much rest time. It’s not even a question of physically gassing, that kind of thing is mentally exhausting and I think there’s a good chance that Prograis with his reflex-based skills will start to unravel, just a little bit, towards the later rounds. As a result I’m picking a close back-and-forth fight that starts to get a bit more one-sided in the later stages resulting in Taylor by decision.

Taylor: I agree with you both that Taylor’s ideal strategy in this fight is to keep Prograis following him throughout, but I’m predicting that the latter’s proactive head movement whilst doing so will cause the Scot problems. If Taylor tries to jab at Prograis as he’s slipping and weaving coming forward, I see him getting countered with left hands to the head and body. Taylor’s volume is going to work against him here, affording Prograis more opportunities to do so. I think Prograis’ bodywork starts to accumulate in the second half, slowing Taylor’s movement down which will lead to more exchanges in the pocket where Prograis will have the advantage. I do think that Taylor’s construction of angles with his feet (something Lukasz mentions above) could cause Prograis real problems, but how he adapts to this is something of an unknown which makes me hesitant to change my pick. I can see Taylor winning a decision, and think his footwork, uppercut and right hook to the body will be key if he does so, but I’m predicting Prograis by competitive but clear decision with the possibility of a KD as well.