Tokyo Olympic Games - Men’s Amateur Boxing Guide
Photo by Lampson Yip - Clicks Images/Getty Images
In only a few days time, amateur boxing at Tokyo 2021 is set to get underway following the announcement of the draw on Thursday afternoon. Given that the Olympics bring plenty of new eyes to the sport, most fans won’t have much idea of who’s who past a few standout names - and might not know where to look if they want to find out, either. But don’t worry - this guide has you covered, as I’ll be running through my thoughts and predictions for each division as well as letting you know who to watch out for and what fights you should be tuning in to see.
Before we dive in, I wanted to make clear that this guide will only be for men’s amateur boxing and I won’t be writing one up for the women’s game either. That’s mainly because I don’t follow women’s amateur boxing as extensively, so I can’t really give informed opinions on it. Apologies!
52kg (Flyweight)
First things first, flyweight is going to be an absolute nightmare to predict. This division is loaded full of talent, with the top order splitting wins against one another throughout the past year. World champion Shakhobidin Zoirov (UZB) and #1 seed Amit Panghal (IND) are the two front runners, but both have looked vulnerable at times. Zoirov took a narrow win over his rival back in April, whilst Amit should’ve gotten his revenge in the Asian Championships final a month later (only to be predictably screwed over by the judges). Who will come out on top in their next meeting is anyone’s guess.
There’s also a number of fighters who could realistically challenge for gold, but because they haven’t been active we don’t really know where they’re at. Jianguan Hu (CHN) won the Asia Olympic qualifying tournament back in 2020 - beating Amit along the way - but hasn’t fought since, whilst 2017 world champion Yosvany Veitía (CUB) returns from suspension and may well be back to his best in time for Tokyo.
Predictions:
Gold - Shakhobidin Zoirov (UZB)
Silver - Billal Bennama (FRA)
Bronze - Amit Panghal (IND), Galal Yafai (GBR)
If you’re looking to bet on amateur boxing, which I think is daft anyway given how incompetent and unpredictable the judging is, this is the division that I’d avoid at all costs. Amit is the best pure boxer at 52kg for me, and I’ve gone back-and-forth on picking him to take gold, but he also has a frustrating habit of being too passive and inactive which has got him into trouble on a few occasions. The Indian’s style also doesn’t seem to be generally too well received by the judges either, so I can see him suffering an early exit at some point - especially considering that his run to the final will likely be against Martínez, Hu and Zoirov. Amit has the talent to win gold in Tokyo, but I have a feeling he’ll fall short at some stage.
In the other half of the bracket I like #2 seed Billal Bennama to make the final, but I’m not too confident in that either. The Frenchman has a difficult path in front of him, with potential fights against fellow Worlds bronze medallist Saken Bibossinov, European Champion Gabriel Escobar and Strandja gold medallist Daniel Asenov all looming. Bennama has wins over Bibossinov and Escobar already in 2021, but facing them back-to-back could prove a tall order. There’s also the concern about whether a cut that Bennama suffered last month against Galal Yafai has fully healed, which is something to keep an eye on.
I’ve picked Galal Yafai to take bronze as well, which I wouldn’t have done until I saw the draw. Things have opened up nicely for the Brit, and his main competition stopping him from making it to the podium are an out-of-form Veitía coming off a lengthy suspension and 2019 Pan-Am champion Rodrigo Marte, who recently suffered a first round KO loss in a shaky performance. No one really knows what Veitía we’re gonna get in Tokyo - will it be the sluggish, disinterested fighter who was content to stick behind a high guard in a wide decision loss to Yafai at the 2019 World Championships, or the focussed, sharp counter-puncher who was clearly the best flyweight in the world back in 2017? There’s just no telling, but if the Cuban can return to vintage form he has the ability to challenge for gold in Tokyo.
Fights to watch: Another meeting between Shakhobidin Zoirov and Amit Panghal is the obvious pick here, given the rivalry between the pair. They’ve met three times in the amateurs so far, most notably in the 2019 World Championship final, and whilst Zoirov has won all three encounters they’ve all been close affairs (I scored their last fight clearly for Amit). Galal Yafai vs. Billal Bennama also promises to be fireworks, with last month’s clash being an early FOTY contender. Both Zoirov-Amit and Yafai-Bennama would take place in the semi-finals, held on August 5th.
There’s a couple more that are probably worth checking out, starting with a potential meeting between Yosvany Veitía and Rodrigo Marte in a rematch of the 2019 Pan-Ams final on the 31st of July. On the same day we’ll likely see Amir Panghal taking on Olympic silver-medallist Yuberjen Martínez, which has the potential to be an upset, whilst Billal Bennama’s bout against the Escobar/Asenov winner on August 3rd looks tasty too.
Ones for the future: Forget about Zoirov, who doesn’t appear to be particularly interested in his pro career. Yafai and Bennama will both be excellent additions to the pro ranks, whilst Amit Panghal could be the first true star of Indian boxing. Expect the hype machine to get fully behind him after Tokyo, especially if he medals, as promoters will clamour to finally break into that market. It’s also worth mentioning Thitisan Panmot, who unfortunately won’t be attending Tokyo despite qualifying. The diminutive Thai bagged an impressive win over Zoirov last year, and he looks to have a very pro-ready style.
57kg (Featherweight)
Although not quite as much of a headache as flyweight, featherweight isn’t exactly stress-free either. It’s another deep division with a number of guys in red-hot form, and amongst the standouts are world champion Mirazizbek Mirzakhalilov (UZB), 4x world champion Lazaro Álvarez (CUB) and 23 year-old Albert Batyrgaziev (RUS). Asian Champion Erdenebat Tsendbaatar (MGL), Samuel Kistohurry (FRA) and World Championship bronze-medallist Peter McGrail (GBR) are also in the mix, whilst Duke Ragan (USA) - who only made it to Tokyo courtesy of a last minute U-turn from USA boxing - will be hoping to rediscover some of his best form.
Predictions:
Gold - Albert Batyrgaziev (RUS)
Silver - Mirazizbek Mirzakhalilov (UZB)
Bronze - Lazaro Álvarez (CUB), Ceiber Avilá (COL)
Batyrgaziev has impressed me all year, especially in his clinic against Samuel Kistohurry in Paris last month, and he’s my pick to take featherweight gold in Tokyo. On the contrary, Mirazizbek Mirzakhalilov hasn’t quite looked himself since his World Championship triumph back in 2019. The Uzbek has been active, but he’s also been dragged into toe-to-toe wars against opponents he’s simply better than. Fortunately for Mirzakhalilov, he’s got a relatively straightforward path to the final if he can get past the Kistohurry/Ragan winner. Not a sure thing by any stretch, mind, and that’s the potential banana skin. However, he’ll likely have either Avilá or Butsenko in the semi-final and I don’t see either man springing an upset there.
Batyrgaziev’s route is much trickier, with a quarter-final date against Tsendbaatar on the cards. The Russian will likely also face Lazaro Álvarez in the semi finals, with the Cuban taking a narrow 3:2 split decision back in 2019 when they first met at the World Championships. However, Batyrgaziev has gone from strength to strength since then whilst Álvarez has been stuck on the shelf, and he’s not gotten any younger either. I think Batyrgaziev’s work-rate will see him take a decision, although Álvarez’s movement will give him serious issues throughout.
If both Mirzakhalilov and Batyrgaziev make the final, I’d give the Russian the edge based on the fact that his defence is a little tighter and he doesn’t get hit as much. He can also match Mirzakhalilov’s relentless pace, and may even finish the stronger of the two. That being said, Mirzakhalilov will likely be the fresher man considering his schedule won’t be nearly as demanding, and 57kg isn’t the easiest cut for Batyrgaziev either. We’ll have to wait and see!
Fights to watch: I’m expecting featherweight to deliver the best fights of the tournament, and can see a few FOTY candidates shaping up already. Mirzakhalilov-Batyrgaziev is probably the one I’m looking forward to the most, as both men are tough-as-teak pressure fighters who never stop throwing or give an inch. If we see it, it’ll be in the final which is on the 5th of August. If you want fireworks, Batyrgaziev-Tsendbaatar is another can’t-miss matchup, and the Mongolian has pedigree in delivering thrillers as we’ve seen before in his 2019 FOTY bout. You can catch that one on the 1st of August. Add Mirzakhalilov-Kistohurry to the list as well, which we may see on the same day.
McGrail squares off against tricky Thai veteran Chatchai Butdee in his opening bout, and you can catch the Brit in action on the 24th of July and (potentially) the 28th of July as well. Kistohurry-Ragan on the 24th will be worth a watch, too.
Ones for the future: Batyrgaziev and Mirzakhalilov have already turned pro, and both are making names for themselves in the paid ranks. Keep an eye out for 2019 European champion Kurt Walker and Peter McGrail as well - they’ll both make for quality pro’s, even though I don’t expect the Brit to do too well in Tokyo considering how tough his draw is.
Ragan is one of the American prospects who’s got a bit of buzz around him, and if you’d asked me a few years ago what I thought of him (when he was coming off of a silver medal at the 2017 World Championships), I’d have had him pegged down as a future world champion in the pro’s. Ragan has lost some of that shine since, but hopefully the American can make good on his early promise in the future.
63kg (Lightweight)
Whilst the 63kg landscape was looking pretty thin in the buildup to Tokyo, with a shortage of realistic challengers to 2x world champion and P4P standout Andy Cruz (CUB), the division has gotten a huge boost following the return of World Championship silver medallist Keyshawn Davis (USA) and 2019 European Champion Hovhannes Bachkov (ARM) to the field. Dzmitry Asanau (BLR) - the last man to officially beat Cruz in a major tournament six years ago - and 2016 Olympic gold medallist Sofiane Oumiha (FRA) are also in contention for medals.
I’m going to go off on a brief rant here, so feel free to skip ahead to the predictions, but the seeding for 63kg has been a disaster. It’s an absolute farce that Andy Cruz, who is arguably the best amateur boxer on the planet right now, is seeded at #3 whilst Jonas Junias - who beat a string of hapless opponents to win the African Olympic qualifiers - finds himself at #2. It seems that the IOC can be just as incompetent as AIBA, somehow.
Predictions:
Gold - Andy Cruz (CUB)
Silver - Keyshawn Davis (USA)
Bronze - Hovhannes Bachkov (ARM), Zakir Safiullin (KAZ)
I’ve been pretty confident in my pick for lightweight gold since 2019, and nothing has really made me think twice since then. Barring a special performance or a robbery, Andy Cruz will be crowned the Olympic champion at 63kg - he’s got a relatively clear path to the final, save for a tricky matchup against Dzmitry Asanau in the quarters, and will likely face ageing veteran Zakir Safiullin in the semi-finals. Whilst Safiullin is as tough as they come, he just doesn’t have the skill set to realistically challenge Cruz. I’d go as far as saying that the Kazakh slugger probably isn’t bronze medal quality, and he’s definitely had a big slice of luck with the draw, but I don’t mind too much seeing as Safiullin is coming towards the end of his career. When you consider the amount of bullshit losses he’s suffered over the past decade, amateur boxing owes him one.
The other side of the bracket is a straight-up shark tank, though. Keyshawn Davis - who for my money is the #2 in the division - has a very difficult run ahead of him, starting with a matchup against top seed Sofiane Oumiha in the round of 16. Davis outclassed Oumiha when they met back at the World Championships in 2019 and I think we’ll see a repeat here, but in the quarter-finals he’ll likely have to face Russian champion Gabil Mamedov before a potential semi-final clash against reigning European champion Hovhannes Bachkov. Whilst I’m picking Davis to advance to the final, I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost to Bachkov in the semi’s - the Armenian’s pressure gave Davis problems when they fought previously, and it’ll be close.
Everyone wants a Cruz-Davis final, and all things considered I think there’s a good chance we’ll get to see it. The pair have fought three times before, including in the 2019 World Championship and Pan-American finals, and whilst Cruz has won each previous contest no one has really pushed him like Davis has. I still like the Cuban to edge a close decision if they meet again, but this fight between two of boxing’s brightest young talents has all the makings of another brilliant chess match.
Fights to watch: Free up your schedule for Sunday afternoon, as Uzbekistan’s Elnur Abduraimov meets Mongolia’s Baatarsukh Chinzorig in their opening match. That’s a guaranteed war, and one that you won’t want to miss. I’d also recommend checking out Davis against Oumiha on the 31st of July, Cruz against Asanau on the 3rd of August and a potential Bachkov-Chinzorig quarter-final also on that day. It goes without saying but if we do get a Cruz-Davis final, you should drop everything you’re doing and watch it live. Don’t expect a thriller, as these two know each-other well and will likely end up trying to outsmart one another in a tactical affair. But there won’t be a higher level bout in the entire tournament, and any fan of amateur boxing can sit back and enjoy the skill on display.
Ones for the future: Keyshawn Davis has been touted as the next star of American boxing, and you can see why - he’s already been making waves in the pro’s this past year, and has remarkable composure for someone so young. I’m hesitant to go overboard as its still early days, but Davis has all the makings of a P4P talent to my eye. Bachkov is also worth a look at, having signed a deal earlier this year with MTK, as is Oumiha who recently made the switch himself. And whilst GB’s Luke McCormack has been stuck with a pretty awful draw in Tokyo, he’s no doubt a very capable boxer who will go on to have a fine pro career.
69kg (Welterweight)
69kg is one of the weaker divisions in Tokyo, but on the plus side there’s some intrigue because of how open it is. World Championship silver-medallist Pat McCormack (GBR) is the front runner, having recently beaten world champion Andrey Zamkovoy (RUS) at the European Olympic qualifiers last month, whilst Ablaikhan Zhussupov (KAZ), Bobo-Usmon Baturov (UZB), Lorenzo Sotomayor (AZE), Vikas Krishan (IND) and home favourite Sewonrets Okazawa (JAP) are all chasing podium spots. Elder statesman Roniel Iglesias (CUB) will also be looking to cap off a glittering career with one final Olympic run, having made his amateur debut back in 2005.
Predictions:
Gold - Pat McCormack (GBR)
Silver - Andrey Zamkovoy (RUS)
Bronze - Roniel Iglesias (CUB), Aidan Walsh (IRL)
McCormack has a really good chance to take gold at 69kg, and I expect him to do just that. He’s in for a deceptively tough opener against the Ekinci-Radzionau winner, and will also have to overcome the crude but effective Bobo-Usmon Baturov in the quarters, but McCormack has outclassed the Uzbek before and should prove too composed once again. The bigger concern is whether he’ll be able to advance without suffering any cuts - Baturov has earned a reputation for head clashes due to his physical style, and given that Baturov’s fights with Krishan and Zhussupov at the Asian Championships were both stopped prematurely it’s something to bear in mind.
I didn’t expect to be picking Aidan Walsh to medal in Tokyo, but his strong performance at the European Olympic qualifiers has seen the Irishman rewarded with an ideal route to the podium if he can get past Jordan’s Zeyad Eshaish, which I think he’s more than capable of doing. A bronze may be in Walsh’s sights, but a semi-final meeting against McCormack would likely prove a step too far.
In the other half of the draw, #2 seed Andrey Zamkovoy is probably the most likely to make it to the final although there’s a couple of dangerous matchups that could see him suffer an early exit. The Russian will have to navigate past Lorenzo Sotomayor in the quarters before likely facing the winner of Iglesias/Zhussupov, and Zamkovoy’s results in the Olympics have been patchy after he suffered a shock loss to unheralded Rayton Okwiri back in Rio. I still like him to make the final, as he appeared in good form earlier this year and already holds wins over Iglesias and Zhussupov from back in 2019, but I think that McCormack has his number now and can see the Brit forcing Zamkovoy to lead and picking him off on the counter en route to taking a decision in the final.
Fights to watch: My first bit of advice would be to avoid Baturov like the plague. His style is more Greco-Roman wrestling than it is boxing, so if that’s your thing switch over. Instead, look out for a solid opener between Vikas Krishan and Sewonrets Okazawa on July 24th, as well as a potential matchup between Iglesias/Krishan/Okazawa and Ablaikhan Zhussupov on the 30th. Zamkovoy’s matchup against Sotomayor on the same day should be a good technical affair too, but don’t get your hopes up too much - I’m not expecting many barnburners at welterweight.
Ones for the future: McCormack is the standout for Team GB at these games, and he’s primed to become a star for British boxing after Tokyo. The Birtley product isn’t young anymore so he’ll likely get fast-tracked once he makes the switch, but there’s no doubting McCormack’s talent and I’m expecting big things of him as a pro. Outside of the Brit, there aren’t loads of guys who I’d keep tabs on really. A few people seem to be high on American Delante Johnson, but I don’t really see it myself and think he’s pretty average. Krishan might switch over and have a run in the paid ranks, but I wouldn’t bank too much on him finding success either.
75kg (Middleweight)
Middleweight isn’t quite as fun as it could’ve been, what with reigning Olympic champion Arlen López (CUB) moving up to light-heavy and 2017 Asian Champion Israil Madrimov (UZB) committing to the pro’s. 2017 world champion Oleksandr Khyzhniak (UKR), reigning world champion Gleb Bakshi (RUS) and World Championship silver-medalists Abilkhan Amankul (KAZ) and Eumir Marcial (PHL) are amongst the favourites to medal, and whilst I wouldn’t expect too many surprises at 75kg it’s still a quality division that’ll make for some great action fights.
Predictions:
Gold - Oleksandr Khyzhniak (UKR)
Silver - Gleb Bakshi (RUS)
Bronze - Eumir Marcial (PHL), Abilkhan Amankul (KAZ)
Khyzhniak is probably one of the safest bets to take gold in Tokyo, having looked imperious ever since he moved down to 75kg a few years ago. The Ukrainian skipped the 2019 World Championships amidst tensions with host nation Russia, but since then he’s cemented himself at #1 with wins over reigning world champion Gleb Bakshi, most recently at the European Olympic qualifiers.
Khyzhniak has a pretty scenic route to the semi-final, where he’ll likely face World Championship silver-medallist Eumir Marcial. Despite winning the Asian Olympic qualifiers back in 2020, Marcial didn’t look great after being shutout against Uzbekistan’s Saidjamshid Jafarov in May’s Asian Championships and given that he’s lost to Khyzhniak before, the Ukrainian should be rightfully favoured. The same goes for the Bakshi-Amankul winner, really - Bakshi had spots of success against Khyzhniak in their last bout but was still ultimately outworked and bullied, whilst Amankul hasn’t quite looked back to his best following a return from a long injury lay-off. On their day all three have the potential to give anyone a tough night, and stylistically Marcial is the toughest matchup, but I can’t see anything other than Khyzhniak leaving Tokyo with gold around his neck.
Fights to watch: Any involving Khyzhniak and Marcial. The Ukrainian wrecking ball is a relentless pressure fighter who sets a torrid pace, and he’ll undoubtedly be notching some stoppage wins as opponents wilt in the face of his volume and physicality. As for Marcial, the Filipino speedster is bundles of fun to watch and just loves to let his hands go. He’s itching to throw combinations all the time, which I commend even if his defence can be somewhat lacking. Naturally a fight between the two, which would take place in the semi-finals on August 5th, is one that shouldn’t be missed. I’d keep an eye out for Marcial against Darchinyan on the 1st of August as well - that has war written all over it.
There’s a couple of others that should also be on your radar, in particular a Isley-Bakshi / Amankul-Kakhramonov double-header on the 29th. A likely Amankul-Bakshi semi would also be a great fight between two of the division’s elite.
Ones for the future: This may surprise you considering how much I’ve talked him up, but I don’t see Khyzhniak’s dominance translating to the pro’s. He’ll be great to watch, sure, but I don’t think his skill set is all that deep nor do I think his conditioning can hold up for 12 rounds. And there’s always a concern with anyone who fights that aggressively that they’ll end up walking onto something big.
Similarly, there are question marks around Marcial. He’s a real handful in the pocket, with nice shot selection, crisp combinations and genuine power, but I think the way he closes distance will be his undoing. Marcial has a tendency to drop his hands when throwing in combination, and his head is always on centre-line which leaves him open to a counter. He’ll get away with it at the lower levels because of his speed, but that won’t run against better opponents - I can see him getting iced with a right hand whilst blitzing forward.
I think Amankul and Bakshi can both go on to be strong pro’s, although what their level is remains to be seen. Both are really solid, good all round boxers and youth is on their side. 22 year-old Troy Isley is another I’d keep tabs on; the American took World Championship bronze back in 2017, and signed with Top Rank earlier this year.
81kg (Light-heavyweight)
If flyweight was difficult to predict because everyone was so good, light-heavyweight is even worse because everyone is so inconsistent. Bekzad Nurdauletov (KAZ) is the world champion, but he’s dropped decisions this year to Fiori and Gheshlaghi (neither of whom even made it to Tokyo) whilst World Championship silver-medallist Dilshodbek Ruzmetov has looked patchy as well, having only made it to the games via the rankings after crashing out to Paulo Aokoso (AUS) in the Asian Olympic qualifiers. Benjamin Whittaker (GBR), who’s also in the hunt for medals, was also pretty sluggish in the European Olympic qualifying tournament. Honestly, I have no clue what the podium is going to look like by the end of the games.
Then there’s the enigma that is Arlen López (CUB), who we haven’t really seen at light-heavyweight before. The Cuban, who won Olympic gold at middleweight back in Rio, moved up to 81kg following a poor run of form in the last few years, and whilst he’s well-known for being lazy López could cruise to gold here if he’s back to his best. We just have no idea whether he’s anywhere near that, unfortunately. Here’s a tip for the bettors - this division has a history of throwing curveballs, so steer well clear.
Predictions:
Gold - Bekzad Nurdauletov (KAZ)
Silver - Dilshodbek Ruzmetov (UZB)
Bronze - Benjamin Whittaker, Arlen López
In case you hadn’t noticed, I’m not too confident in my picks for this division. Bekzad Nurdauletov should advance to the semi’s in the top half of the bracket, but he’ll have his work cut out against Russian bulldozer Imam Khataev. These two met a few months ago in Russia with Nurdauletov running out the victor, although Khataev’s power and strength makes him a serious threat to derail the Kazakh’s medal aspirations.
Whittaker would also likely secure a bronze medal if he can get past Keno Machado of Brazil in the quarter-finals, in a fight that really could go either way. Should the Brit advance, he’d likely come up short against Nurdauletov and you feel that outboxing the Kazakh world champion is a tough ask for him.
Shit really hits the fan in the lower half of the bracket though. Even though we don’t know how he’ll look, López has a gift of a run to the semi-finals with only Croatia’s Luka Plantic standing in his way. Meanwhile, newly-minted Asian champion Ruzmetov squares off against Cuban-born Loren Alfonso Dominguez in the round of 16 - that’s a 50/50 pick’em on paper. In their last meeting Ruzmetov managed to squeak out a tight split-decision, and really I have no idea how it’ll go this time around but I’ve backed the Uzbek to progress.
From there, who knows how a potential semi-final showdown against López will play out. If López is on-form we have a very good fight on our hands, but considering how long he’s been out of the ring I’m not getting my hopes up. For that reason I like Ruzmetov to make the final, where he’ll probably meet Nurdauletov once again in a rematch of their 2019 World Championships final. These two have met twice before, with the Kazakh boasting a 2-0 lead in their head-to-head although I thought Ruzmetov deserved the nod the last time they fought. It’ll be a toss-up once again, but I like Nurdauletov to edge a tight split-decision. I’m not sure whether either of them will get that far, though.
Fights to watch: Looking at the schedule, Nurdauletov-Khataev on the 28th has caught my eye, as has Ruzmetov-Dominguez that same day. López-Plantic could also be a good matchup as it’ll give us a better idea of where López is at in terms of sharpness, whilst Whittaker-Machado promises to be a closely-contested affair - both of those bouts will take place in the quarter-finals on the 30th of July. I don’t want to make too many other suggestions, mainly because I have no idea what fights we could end up seeing. There’s the potential for some fun permutations, though.
Ones for the future: Both Whittaker and Ruzmetov are drawing some attention already, and their stock will only rise if they can medal in Tokyo. Whittaker looks like another promising young British talent, and with a very knowledgable trainer in Firewalker ABC’s Joby Clayton guiding him I have high expectations for the Brit when he turns over. Ruzmetov has been courted by a number of promoters over in the U.S. too, and I think we’ll likely see him link up with World of Boxing after the Olympics end. They’re both young, and I’m sure we’ll be seeing plenty of them in the coming years.
As for Nurdauletov, there’s no word as to whether the Kazakh will switch over as of yet, but he’d be a fine addition to whatever division he chooses to compete in. Considering he’s only 23, there’s plenty of good years ahead for the light-heavyweight world champion too.
Last but not least, remember the name Imam Khataev. The Russian is a stocky, aggressive wrecking ball of a fighter who’s made of granite. His power and strength will probably catch your eye at first, but Khataev has underrated skills as well including some nice upper-body movement. With a bit of refinement, he could make for an excellent pro and at the very least he’ll be plenty of fun.
91kg (Heavyweight)
Whisper it quietly but heavyweight has turned into a decent division, which is more than can be said for how it looked 2 years ago. Muslim Gadzhimagomedov (RUS) is the reigning world champion, with his closest rivals being Cuban-born Enmanuel Reyes (ESP), David Nyika (NZL) and an ageing Vassiliy Levit (KAZ), who will be looking to go one further in Tokyo after being notoriously robbed of gold at Rio 2016. Then there’s 4x light-heavyweight world champion Julio César La Cruz, who will be moving up to heavyweight for Tokyo. We haven’t really seen La Cruz in a notable fight at 91kg before, save for a comfortable points decision over Germany’s Ammar Abduljabbar, so I’m taking a leap of faith with my picks below.
Predictions:
Gold - Julio César La Cruz (CUB)
Silver - Muslim Gadzhimagomedov (RUS)
Bronze - Hussein Iashaish (JOR), David Nyika (NZL)
If it wasn’t for La Cruz crashing the party, this division would’ve been simple to predict; I’d have picked Gadzhimagomedov to take gold with Enmanuel Reyes bagging silver. There’s a lot of question marks around how the Cuban legend will look - 10kg is a pretty big jump after all - and whether his style, which is somewhat reliant on athleticism and reflexes, will get him in trouble as he continues to get older. I’m going to take a stab in the dark here and pick La Cruz to go all the way in Tokyo and become a two-weight Olympic champion. I think he’s moved up to heavyweight at the right time, because the division is short on top-level pressure fighters (Levit is past his best now for me) and the matchups suit the Cuban stylistically. He’ll likely face compatriot-turned-rival Enmanuel Reyes in the quarter-finals, and whilst Reyes is a smooth and stylish boxer you’re not out-slicking La Cruz. I can also see a potential final against Gadzhimagomedov being a cagey affair; if you watch the Russian’s recent bout with Reyes at the European Olympic qualifiers, you’ll see the type of fight which may well play into La Cruz’s hands. Gadzhimagomedov is light on his feet, but he’s not a particularly good pressure fighter - there’s a real chance that he’ll struggle to pin La Cruz down with enough consistency to get his own work off. For that reason I’m tentatively picking the Cuban to bag gold once again, although there are obviously some valid concerns given his age and style.
2019 Worlds silver-medallist Julio Castillo hasn’t fought in nearly two years now, and if he’s rusty we could well see a premature exit to Jordan’s Hussein Iashaish in the round of 16. GB’s Cheavon Clarke also has a chance to sneak on the podium if he can produce his best against the winner of Castillo/Iashaish, but he’ll have his work cut out getting past the underrated Abner Teixeira first. Elsewhere, I like Kiwi David Nyika to make it to the semi-finals with his main obstacle being Belarusian Uladzislau Smiahlikau.
On a final note, spare a thought for Vassiliy Levit who should be defending his Olympic crown in Tokyo next week. The Kazakh warrior has been a credit to his sport and his country, constantly picking himself up after being on the losing end of robberies, and yet he’s always carried himself with class. Sadly I don’t think it’ll be a fairytale swan song for Levit, who has started to look every bit his age in the past year, and I’m expecting him to fall to Emmanuel Reyes in the opener.
Fights to watch: Levit-Reyes is scheduled for the 27th of July, which promises to be an interesting pressure fighter vs. boxer matchup. I’m more excited for Gadzhimagomedov-Abduljabbar in the quarter-finals, though, along with a potential semi-final clash between Gadzhimagomedov and Nyika.
Don’t get your hopes up for too much action elsewhere, as a bout between La Cruz and Reyes is definitely one for the purists and would likely resemble a dance-off more than a boxing match. I can see a final between Gadzhimagomedov and La Cruz/Reyes being similarly nip-and-tuck with little in the way of thrills. These type of fights are an acquired taste.
Ones for the future: Make sure you’re following Gadzhimagomedov and Nyika after the Olympics finish. Despite picking up an impressive haul of silverware in the amateurs, the Russian is only 24 years old and I know that a few promoters are already trying to get their hands on him. Meanwhile, Nyika has already kicked off his pro career earlier this year and the New Zealand native has real star potential at cruiserweight. Cheavon Clarke shouldn’t be slept on either; the Brit has a great story behind him, and will be riding some momentum if he can manage to snatch a bronze in Tokyo.
91+kg (Super-heavyweight)
In the land of the giants, reigning world champion Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB) looks set for Olympic glory. The Uzbek powerhouse has dominated his competition in the past two years, and you’d be hard pressed to say who can realistically stop him from claiming gold in Tokyo. Perhaps Justis Huni, who was ruled out from competing a few weeks ago after suffering a hand injury, would’ve given Jalolov a stiff test. Then again this is super-heavyweight, where everything can change with one punch, and there’s still a handful of quality fighters at 91+kg nevertheless. 2x World Championship silver-medallist Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ) is Jalolov’s main rival for gold, as is Mourad Aliev (FRA) and young gun Richard Torrez Jr. (USA). 21 year-old Dainier Pero (CUB) could also be a bit of a dark horse, having come through a tough selection tournament in Cuba that included the likes of Erislandy Savón.
Predictions:
Gold - Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB)
Silver - Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ)
Bronze - Richard Torrez (USA), Mourad Aliev (FRA)
Truth be told, I can’t see any other outcome than Jalolov leaving Japan as Olympic champion in a fortnight. The 6’7 Uzbek’s size, power and lateral movement is simply too difficult to overcome for the current super-heavyweight crop, even if his punch repertoire and overall game is quite limited. He’ll probably face off against Mourad Aliev - who I like to beat the Clarke/Rogava winner - in the semi’s, and whilst the Frenchman has the size and counter-punching to give Jalolov problems, the world champion will likely opt to fight on the backfoot and force Aliev to pressure which he isn’t nearly as comfortable doing. Expect a pretty ugly fight with lots of clinching, and a Jalolov win to secure a spot in the final.
Kamshybek Kunkabayev will almost certainly walk away with at least bronze, as he has an easy path to the semi-finals. Waiting for him there will be the winner of Torrez-Pero, which is a pretty difficult matchup to call - when they last fought in 2019 I had Torrez winning a close but clear decision, only for Pero to steal it on the cards. The Cuban has continued to develop since then and he may well surprise us in Tokyo, but I like Torrez to outwork him here and advance.
Kunkabayev-Torrez is a toss-up and could go either way, but I don’t see either man posing too much of a challenge to Jalolov. Torrez got nuked when they fought back at the 2019 World Championships, whilst Kunkabayev is 1-4 against Jalolov with his last win coming via split-decision back in 2017. If anyone is going to beat the Uzbek, it’ll most likely be Aliev.
Fights to watch: There’s a couple of gems at 91+kg, starting off with Torrez-Pero, Kunkabayev-Verysasov and Aliev against the Clarke/Rogava winner all on the 1st of August. I’d also check out the semi’s as well as the final itself - whilst the super-heavyweights aren’t always great to watch, they’re mandatory viewing in my opinion. Keep your eyes peeled for Jalolov-Aliev in particular; it may very well end up being a boring clinchfest, but both have devastating power so there’s a chance we could see a big KO.
Ones to watch: I’ve already seen Bakhodir Jalolov touted as a future heavyweight world champion, which I think is premature quite frankly - his skill set isn’t deep enough to cut it at the elite level as a pro. The Uzbek isn’t getting any younger either, and without some serious progress I think Jalolov won’t reach the heights some are expecting of him. Instead, I’d be focussing on some of the younger names at 91+kg, such as Justis Huni, Richard Torrez Jr. and Mourad Aliev. Frazer Clarke will inevitably get a big push from Matchroom when he turns pro as well - he’s a likeable guy, very marketable, even though he’s not on the same level as previous super-heavies from Great Britain.
That concludes my predictions for amateur boxing at Tokyo 2021 - see you in two weeks to discuss the results!