UFC 245: Main Card Staff Picks
As usual for the end of the year, the UFC has pulled out all the stops for UFC 245; 3 undisputed title fights featuring the consensus #1 contenders, and relevant matchups all the way to the prelims. Main-evented by a bad-blood title fight between champion Kamaru Usman and former interim champion Colby Covington, the event also features a pound-for-pound top three fighter in Max Holloway (against top contender Alexander Volkanovski), in addition to the consensus greatest women’s MMA fighter of all time in Amanda Nunes.
Even disregarding the two top-5 bantamweights in bouts rounding out the main show, it’s fairly unlikely that UFC 245 ends up uninteresting, and entirely impossible that the results end up unimportant. Ahead of this stacked card, The Fight Site’s staff take a look at each fight on the main card, and give their predictions on how it’ll go.
Usman/Covington
Sriram: For a fight meant to be for the future of one of MMA’s better divisions (at least on paper), Usman vs. Covington is somehow not even particularly exciting from a “best vs. best” perspective. Granted, they’ve mostly proven to be the very best; Usman has razed everyone he’s faced in the UFC (all the way to a battery of Tyron Woodley that could’ve been a 50-39), where Covington has put together high-paced and aggressive showings to edge past Rafael dos Anjos and dominate the great Robbie Lawler. Both could easily turn out to be dominant champions, with very few credible threats on the horizon after the other (Leon Edwards, perhaps Jorge Masvidal, and...no one else in the picture). And yet the prospect of the fight itself seems less exciting than it should be, because there’s a good chance it turns into a low-action clinch-battle.
In my opinion, a smart fight from Covington is going to force a smart fight from Usman to win, but Covington hasn’t really shown the strategic acumen to be able to trust him to fight smart. In general, Covington’s game is to pressure hard from the start and push into the clinch, and the first part is very likely to fluster Usman (who isn’t a particularly comfortable striker and hasn’t shown much skill on the counter), but I’d be very surprised if Colby could avoid getting dominated in the clinch. Dos Anjos mostly ruled the striking exchanges there with Covington, and Usman is a stronger and bigger fighter than RDA and is also a terrific clinch fighter. The worry for me with Covington comes from the RDA fight, where he was losing the clinch exchanges but kept going for them, which makes me think that he isn’t all that adaptable and might try to force his usual game even if Usman batters him and takes him down from there.
Finally, I trust Usman a lot more to make a leap here than I do Covington. If it’s counterpunching he needs to keep Covington from moving forward, Hooft is a decent camp for it (especially for someone with Usman’s natural power), and his last two fights showed both growth in skill and tactical intelligence. If Colby fights the wrong fight, I don’t expect him to get away with it, and I don’t expect him to fight the right one. Usman outclinches him, outwrestles him, and wears him down with bodywork. Usman via UD.
Ben: Look, realistically Usman and Covington use similar gameplans. Pressure the opponent to the fence, and work their wrestling/clinch. The methodical differences (volume and pace vs. overwhelming physical tools and solid footwork) are of less importance here. If they clinch up, Usman will take control. Covington’s ridiculous pace and striking work best when he can use his wrestling. When forced to strike only, we get Covington/Maia. If that’s any indication of Colby’s open-space striking skills, I really can’t see him beating Usman. Usman’s clinch control, ridiculous strength and power, and top control are all better than Covington. We’ve seen how both handle similar opponents, but it’s the RDA fights that really are the most indicative of how the clinch exchanges will play out. RDA arguably (and did in my opinion) beat Colby in the clinch, even scoring multiple takedowns of his own. Meanwhile, Usman big-brothered RDA with relative ease. My prediction, a blowout. Kamaru Usman by Unanimous Decision.
Danny: This fight will probably be very ugly. Covington looks like he’s finished developing in a technical sense, but he is utterly fearless, along with being a good gameplanner who knows how to leverage his strengths against elite opposition. The biggest thing he’ll need to do here is abandon the takedowns. Usman is far more physically imposing, and Colby has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers. If Covington just throws at Usman in open space, however, I’m not sure how well Usman’s game works when his opponent’s backs aren’t glued to the fence. No real confidence in this pick, but since most of our staff is favoring Usman, I figure someone should take a flier on Colby Covington by Unanimous Decision.
Ed: Essentially all the strategic observations I’ve had have been covered by Ben and Danny here. While I don’t think Covington has a particularly tough time pressuring with volume to get Usman to the cage, everything changes once he engages in any grappling situation. Covington’s pace is based on being able to switch off from a takedown attempt to the clinch, striking off the clinch, then back to a takedown, rinse and repeat. That’s all well and good, but I can’t see anything other than Usman utterly halting that process once the grappling scenarios begin. If Covington brings the fight to Usman’s strongest position, I see the champion controlling from there and winning rounds, all without having to work beyond a pace he’s comfortable with. However, I have some important questions. Does Covington even attempt to take his usual approach in the first place, and if he does, is he able to abandon it, as Danny said, if things aren’t going his way? We saw some of that against Lawler, but he was essentially facing a husk that refused to throw back, I don’t think that’s valid data. I have to make my prediction based on what we’ve seen consistently from both of them, and that’s Covington starting that wrestling chain once they hit the cage. I don’t think Usman is out of his depth in the striking matchup, it should give Covington incentive to get back to his usual process. Kamaru Usman via Unanimous Decision.
Philippe : Not a big fan of both men’s fighting style but I think this could be a very good fight with a lot of momentum shifts. Usman seems to me like the superior fighter in most important categories (especially in the clinch) but Colby’s pace and speed could help him win some of later rounds. Usman went five rounds against Woodley, looking like he could go 10 that night but that was a fight he dominated from start to finish. I think comparing the victories each man has against Maia and RDA could be a not so smart shortcut. Of course, those fights tell a lot about both fighters but because Usman was more dominant against RDA and Maia than Colby was it doesn’t mean he’ll beat Colby. To me it’ll come to who has the best gameplan, and who wants it more. I don’t doubt that Colby is ready to give it all Saturday night and if I have zero reason to doubt Usman’s will and toughness I just never had the chance to see him having to face adversity. What happens when Usman doesn’t dominate? I can see Usman winning the first few rounds then Colby getting a big comeback round (hurting Usman on the feet) mid fight and finishing strong. I have no dog in that fight but I’m picking Colby Covington by Split Decision.
Tommy: I don’t have a whole lot more to say than my colleagues have already covered. I don’t expect this to be a great fight. Colby will try to overwhelm with volume, Usman will try to clinch and grind him out there. Past fights indicate he can probably do so, though whether it’s enough to win and whether he’ll be able to get and secure takedowns is an open question that will have a huge influence on the way the fight plays out. I expect a grindy, trench warfare sort of fight. It will almost certainly go 5 rounds and be very close. Usman by Split Decision.
Holloway/Volkanovski
Danny: Max Holloway is the better fighter and in general I think this fight favors him by a fair bit, but if there’s one cautionary point of insight that has guided most of my upset picks this year, it’s this: When a streaking contender is fighting a champion in whom the cracks are beginning to show, pick the streaking contender. For all of my technical thoughts on this matchup, refer to my preview. Alexander Volkanovski via Unanimous Decision.
Ben: Read Danny’s preview please. It’s fantastic. With that out of the way, I am picking Volkanovski. We’ve seen Volkanovski’s camp put together gameplans that we’d never have thought Alex can pull off, and I think his less than exciting Aldo performance is not given enough credit. Max’s penchant for eating leg kicks, which I added up to 87% since fighting Cub Swanson way back in 2015, is going to be a key part of Alex’s path to victory. Max can also be caught on his initial entries with a quick combination of hooks, something Edgar landed multiple times for example. The right hand in particular needs to become a key weapon for Volkanovski, as in the tape I’ve been able to watch in the leadup, it’s something Max eats cleanly too often for me to think he’s safe here. I would also be remiss if I didn’t point out just how scary Alex’s ground and pound is. We haven’t seen much in the past few fights, but it’s lethal. While Max is ridiculously durable, I think here we see that chin falter sadly, and I’m going out on a limb with that I know. Alexander Volkanovski by TKO Round 2 (specifically a knockdown w/ground and pound finish).
Ed: For whatever reason, I see the clinch being a huge factor in our top two UFC 245 fights. For all of Alexander Volkanovski’s talents, his general approach is about control. Controlling the pace with volume, controlling positions in the clinch, very literally controlling his opponents on top. So many of his opponents have been reacting to him. If we can expect vintage Max Holloway, that changes on Saturday. My prediction is based upon Max taking the lead and sticking with it, pressuring with mixed level combinations as he did against Ortega and Pettis. Even if I knew for a fact that this was Max’s plan coming in, I’d still look toward the clinch to make a pick with confidence. Volkanovski has been able to stifle his opponents’ offense and keep momentum in his favor with timely takedowns and stretches of clinch control against the cage. But in my opinion, he’s never faced someone with elite skill in prolonged clinch exchanges. Aldo (in his prime, at least) was always one to grab whizzers and wrist control to circle off, and while that is an approach Holloway is versed in, we’ve seen him straighten up his opponent, create space and use the clinch as an effective offensive position. Some may see this as a bit of a physical mismatch once they tie up, but I believe Alexander Volkanovski is going to be surprised by the champion once the pummeling begins. With that being said, I expect Holloway will be able to keep his offense steady. Max Holloway via Unanimous Decision.
Sriram: Holloway/Edgar was concerning, but the issue for Volkanovski here is that he doesn’t really have a defined area of advantage over Max. Against Mendes it was volume and pace, and against Aldo it was just a willingness to keep working, but he won’t have either against an opponent who doesn’t have to ration his effort the way Mendes and Aldo did at that point in their careers. Ed covered the clinch dynamic where Holloway is being underrated massively, so that isn’t a place where Volkanovski can force to rest, and his top-game is vicious but Poirier had trouble doing much when he was able to get the takedown (and he’s a bigger man than Volkanovski who decimated Anthony Pettis from the top position).
The biggest gap is the boxing, of course, and Max rules that arena. Volkanovski has a good jab and can pressure, but Holloway is one of the toughest men to pressure in MMA and has one of the best jabs in MMA too. Holloway isn’t the deepest defensively and Volkanovski might have some success if he can time Holloway on the counter, but Volkanovski is also open to the body all the time (even Elkins was able to back him off and body-kick on the exit, and both Mendes and Aldo punched his body at will) and his counterpunching hasn’t been tested against someone with the offensive depth of Holloway. After Edgar, I’ll hold off on expecting an Ortega-level destruction, but I will say that Holloway has the tools to make Volkanovski’s game look very ordinary. Holloway via UD.
Philippe: Unlike my dear teammates, I don’t see anything that should warn me about Max Holloway. I don’t think Max’s performance against Edgar was concerning, I think he took a cautious approach after the damage he received in that war with Poirier (Still my fight of the year). I have a ton of respect for Alex Volkanovski and I think he finally is the match up we wanted for Holloway for so long (if only we could have had prime Chad Mendes vs Holloway). I expect Volk to win some rounds in there and to seriously hurt Max and maybe even get close to a submission in the early rounds, but all I can see form this fight is Max slowly but surely destroying Alex’s body whose high guard is gonna cost him a lot. Max Holloway via fifth round TKO.
Tommy: Alex Volkanovski is a terrific all-terrain MMA fighter, but I don’t think he does anything well enough to force the fight into a channel where he can beat Max. Holloway’s volume and offensive pressure will keep Volk’s game from getting going, and while Alex’s general toughness and grit will give him moments ultimately I see it being a pretty clear Holloway fight. I have to think the way Max came out flat against Frankie was mostly a hangover from the Poirier fight (Max isn’t immune to the champion pressure of getting safe wins sometimes), as well as being presented with a somewhat uninspiring opponent. Holloway by UD.
Nunes/de Randamie
Danny: Whatever. Nunes via second round TKO.
Ben: GDR is clearly a much better fighter since their first fight, but that doesn’t mean much will change, especially since Nunes has improved plenty as well. Last time out, Nunes just took GDR down and pounded her out. I see no reason to assume she wouldn’t attempt that again. While she may be more willing to play on the feet a bit, I expect her to eventually shoot and TKO GDR, though I will say GDR probably gets out of round 1 this time. Amanda Nunes by TKO Round 2.
Ed: Both valid and equally thought-out analyses from my colleagues. I can’t say I’ve done a lot of research into this one, but when was the last time Amanda Nunes took someone down? Can we be confident in her wrestling holding up coming into this fight, especially against a fighter who I’m guessing has improved in that respect? These are my main questions, as I see the striking matchup favoring a responsible, physical striker in de Randamie. Most of Nunes’ most potent offense has come on the counter after some atrocious decision-making by her opponents, I don’t think GDR will afford her such opportunities. My prediction is ultimately useless as I haven’t done any studying to back up my reasoning, but Germaine de Randamie via Round 3 TKO.
Sriram: This is basically a “I like GDR more” pick, but I think I’ll take the underdog here. Nunes can wrestle, but de Randamie is a very strong clinch player and that could cause some issues there, and Nunes isn’t the sort anymore to come out immediately and force a high-paced chain wrestling sequence. Her reliance on the counter was blown open by the Shevchenko rematch, where the more careful striker didn’t throw herself out of position to get cracked by Nunes’ relatively limited arsenal. GDR probably doesn’t just brawl and get destroyed like Cyborg did, and she did a decent job holding off the dogged takedowns of Pennington (although that’s a far cry from Nunes, it’s definitely something). Nunes is a good champion and she could just make me look dumb by doing exactly what she did the first time, but GDR’s the lean. GDR via UD.
Philippe: I’m actually excited for this fight. It’s been fun watching Amanda Nunes as a champion lately and as an American Top Team stan, I like her. However, I like her opponent a lot too. I have a lot of respect for Germaine de Randamie as a person and as a fighter. Both women improved a lot since their fight six years ago and If GDR improved her takedown defense I really don’t see Amanda winning this on the feet easily and if Germaine can hurt Nunes in the clinch and counter The Lioness when she’ll try to close the distance she definitely has a chance. GDR has the skills to do it. The X factor in this fight to me is the champion’s confidence, which must be at a all time high following her wins over Cyborg and Holm by KO. So Nunes may prove me wrong and get GDR out of here early but I’m going with Germaine de Randamie via Unanimous Decision.
Tommy: Is Nunes going to do a wrestle, or has she fallen so in love with her (considerable) power that she goes after GDR on the feet? If Nunes hits and early takedown this fight goes very badly for de Randamie. If it stays standing, especially at distance, Nunes’s chin will be tested. I’m going to take a bit of a flyer on this one and say that after starching Cyborg Nunes believes so much in her power (and has perhaps developed the late career aversion to grappling that pops up for so many wrestle boxers like Hendo and Fedor) that she goes after it on the feet and GDR shows her that raw power isn’t everything. GDR by 4rd round KO.
Aldo/Moraes
Sriram: It’s hard to find the words to adequately express my confusion at the series of events that led to this fight being made. First, it was Marlon Moraes finding a way to lose that fight to Henry Cejudo, one where he looked far ahead skill-wise; Cejudo simply outlasted the Brazilian, and Moraes crumbled quickly when Cejudo found the wherewithal to simply push forward and make him work. In one round, the man to carry 135 into the future became a footnote; his bounceback is the greatest fighter of all time, 15 years into his career, years into a visible decline, and a weight-class down from where he usually fights (and likely one down from the lowest weight-class he can even make). The strongest opinion I have is “Aldo misses weight, and we might as well break down Moraes against the inevitable replacement fight (who’s probably Pedro Munhoz)”.
Regarding the unfortunate fight we actually have on our hands, it’s always uncomfortable to pick the worse fighter to win, but that’s the situation. Aldo’s performance against Volkanovski was legitimately awful, and he can’t be trusted to throw volume anymore. Prime Aldo’s a very hard fight for someone like Moraes, an outside-kicker (where Aldo’s the hardest man to kick in the business) who can be shocked by the speed of someone like Dodson, but Moraes can just spam kicks and convince today’s Aldo that he doesn’t want to do anything but play defense. Best case is a 1-round banger where Aldo does the right thing with his cardio limitations, and risks getting knocked out to put Moraes away early, but if he could do that, he would’ve against Volkanovski. Munhoz > Moraes when Munhoz steps in. but in this hypothetical matchup, Moraes by UD.
Danny: What a tonedeaf fight to make. Marlon/Yan and Aldo/Faber would’ve been far more competitively meaningful, and infinitely less depressing to watch. I digress. Moraes’ last performance was an absolute disaster; a physical and mental detonation comparable only to the Brandon Thatch’s and the Rumble Johnson’s of the combat sports world. An excellent run of finishes seemed to gloss over a lot of the technical flaws within Moraes’ game, including a negative clinch game, a lack of layered defense, rote boxing, and an inability to fight at pace. Aldo at 135 is probably even more of a concern, frankly. His performance against Volkanovski was that of an utterly shot fighter who lost without even being hit cleanly for three rounds. Aldo has one shot here, and that is to go balls-to-the-wall from the opening bell and just blitz Moraes with all he has. Cejudo has proven how utterly breakable Moraes truly is. But, his fuel tank continues to truncate fight after fight and I flatly don’t trust him to win fights he can’t finish. Aldo still seems to be fairly durable, so expect this to be tepid and awful until it becomes depressing. Marlon Moraes via third round TKO.
Ben: I’m not going to bother breaking down this fight, because realistically I don’t see a point. This is going to be over quickly. Aldo already looks skeletal and that was before the water weight cut (he was 152 is my understanding). If he can even make it to the fight without going into kidney failure, he will get pasted in round 1. I hate writing that, but Marlon hits really hard, is very fast, and Aldo will be insanely depleted. I really hope I’m wrong. Marlon Moraes by KO Round 1.
Ed: Yikes.
Philippe : Jose Aldo retired five years ago after his fantastic win over Chad Mendes. I don’t know what people are talking about.
Tommy: Why bantamweight? Why not lightweight, Jose, if you had to make a weight class change? I expect Aldo to look like himself for maybe the first minute and a half of the fight, after which draining his already compromised, aging body starts to show. Aldo is mostly a single shot counter guy with the occasional blitz, at the lower weight class I don’t expect to see many of the blitzes. Marlon is too dangerous here to deal with at 60% or whatever Aldo comes in at. Moraes by UD.
Yan/Faber
Danny: Petr Yan looks like one of the best pressure fighters in the entire sport, with an incredibly deep and thoughtful striking game, measured footwork, and a violent clinch game. What is the point of this fight? Yan is ready to fight for a title right now, and if the UFC wanted him to net at least one more win, a fight with Sterling, Sandhagen, or Moraes would’ve been far more relevant and interesting. Urijah Faber’s win over Ricky Simon didn’t tell us a whole lot, other than Simon has never met a right hand he hasn’t been hit by and old man Faber is still capable of finishing fights against a certain class of opponent. If Yan doesn’t dominate Faber up and down the block and/or put him away in dynamic fashion, this will be a shocking indictment of his place in the division. Petr Yan via second round TKO.
Ben: Faber took a really smart matchup for his comeback in Ricky Simon, the type of fighter he feasted on in his prime. Now he’s facing someone he’d never have beaten even at his best. This fight is a horrific stylistic mismatch for Faber, and I’m all for it. Yan’s pressure footwork, excellent striking, and the pure level of attritive violence he brings to the cage are nearly unparalleled (and that is not hyperbole). His TDD is also a pretty high level to boot, and Faber is not the greatest takedown artist. Faber’s power and submission game will always be a present danger for whoever he fights, but this fight is a name showcase for Yan. Petr Yan by KO Round 2.
Ed: I’m trying to think of any matchup-specific danger presented here by Faber and I’m struggling to find it. Let’s suppose Faber has some sort of advantage as a grappler, his offensive wrestling game hasn’t been anything approaching potent in years, and Yan is one of the best scramblers in the UFC at the moment. Add in that Faber’s striking isn’t going to do him any favors in getting into decent wrestling situations, I’d rule that out. What most people fear is a “club and sub” Faber overhand into guillotine type of scenario. I really don’t see an overhand being the type of strike to catch Yan, he’s a fan of the high guard and is usually extremely responsible when it comes to entry-level wide shots. Dodson caught him, but he walked into an explosive straight, it wasn’t a charging, looping punch. We’ve all written extensively on Yan’s strengths, so I’m here searching for possibilities from Faber. I can’t find any. Petr Yan via Round 3 TKO.
Sriram: Should I take Faber by meme finish, round 1? I’m thinking about it, Faber could just eyepoke him. Other than that, though, there isn’t much to say that Yan can’t walk Faber down and beat him up. He got hurt by Ricky Simon early, after all, and I’d be surprised if an aging Faber could go 3 rounds in a pressure cooker against an opponent who’s generally proven immensely difficult to back off (even with a knockdown, as Dodson found). It’s just not one that Faber’s built to win. Yan via TKO, round 3.
Philippe: That’s a great fight to open the main card. Petr Yan is a fantastic fighter and I can’t wait to see him fight for the UFC title later next year. He’s a slow starter so I can see the first round going to Urijah but after that all that Yan needs to be careful of is that right hand and not overextending on his own right hand like he does sometimes. Faber is old but he’s always been very tough to finish and he’s a very good finisher. I expect him to have some moments in the fights early before failing under Petr’s pressure. I’ll give him the respect he deserves by picking Petr Yan via unanimous Decision.
Tommy: Faber is from an older generation of MMA, and Yan is in the vanguard of a new one. I’m sure Faber still has some power in his right, and that his guillotine is still very dangerous, but I don’t think any of that will matter as Yan won’t give him the chance to use either. Yan’s scrambling takedown defense is better than Faber’s wrestling at this point, and in terms of boxing Yan is light years ahead. He’s one of the most defensively responsible fighters in the sport in pocket exchanges, almost always getting his chin tucked behind his shoulders and showing a lot of proactive head movement during exchanges. He closes the door well with his lead hand and he’s more than capable of hurting people in the clinch if Urijah tries to use that phase as an escape. Yan doesn’t have one punch KO power, but he’s got the shocking power of a life long boxer who isn’t trying to put you out with one shot. As such, he’ll hurt Faber without making himself overly vulnerable to a counter. A late TKO or wide decision seems most likely. Urijah got gifted an opponent he could look good against in Ricky Simon, this fight is the UFC letting Yan stay busy and put a marketable name on his resume even though Sandhagen or Aljo (or Cejudo directly) would have been much more sensible fights given how No Mercy has looked in his last few outings. Yan by KO, round 3.