UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cerrone Staff Picks
While the UFC generally uses their big cards smartly, the utilization of Conor McGregor’s return at UFC 246 is somewhat baffling; instead of trying to keep the McGregor inflow by putting compelling fights up and down the card, the event is start-and-stop, and the UFC’s bottom line will likely suffer for it in the long-term. That said, there are enough good fights to consider the card an appealing one overall, especially for those who follow lighter-weight prospects; alongside a high-profile main event, the UFC has put three PPV-quality bouts on the card, even though two find themselves on the prelims.
Headed by McGregor/Cerrone (which speaks for itself in terms of name value), 2020’s first PPV offering features three exciting hopefuls looking to take a big step up; the relentless Carlos Diego Ferreira faces the unflappably game Anthony “Showtime” Pettis, lightweight menace Nasrat Haqparast looks to get past a resurgent Drew Dober, and one of 145’s scariest prospects Sodiq Yusuff is tested by an Andre Fili in the form of his life. To break it all down, here’s a few of The Fight Site’s best MMA minds.
Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone
Sriram Muralidaran: No way to pretend this is anything but "is McGregor still McGregor", in a matchmaking scheme broadly similar to dos Anjos/Chiesa but with more important people. Not willing to buy McGregor being hopelessly washed until I see it, and that's exactly what he'd have to be to struggle with an aging fighter on a two-fight skid who categorically can't deal with pressure or body work or southpaws or fast-starters or strong counterpunchers who can take away his winging blitzes (let alone all of them at once). If this is any closer than Cerrone's lightweight title fight in 2015, McGregor needs to seriously reconsider moving forward at all (at least as an elite fighter, the way he used to be). McGregor by TKO1.
Danny Martin: All personal discussion aside, Conor needs to be irreparably shot to lose this fight. Conor McGregor via first round TKO.
Kyle McLachlan: This is such a hard fight to pick, as McGregor should blast Cerrone early but he’ll have to pressure him and target the body consistently to do so and I think in his first fight for a while he’ll slip back into his natural counter game. Cerrone is always game but he’s also not stupid, so this might be a staring contest for a little while. Still, my assumption (based on having seeing more of him lately) is that this version of Cerrone is likely more shot than this version of McGregor. I’m going to go with the unpopular pick here, and say McGregor wins a decision in a fight that doesn’t really show us much and only serves to disappoint.
Philippe Marchetti: If the “season” starts here for Conor, I really expect him to look just OK against Cowboy and improve through the year; I expect a not-so-flashy Mcgregor just getting rounds under him. I think the fight being at 170 lbs. does benefits Cowboy more than Conor; at Lightweight I’d pick an easy early KO win for the former “champ-champ”.
Here at 170, I’d like to see Cowboy wrestle as soon as the fights starts. That would allow him to get his nerves down without taking too much damage. Cowboy is a bit bigger than Conor and he could use this advantage, but even though Conor’s timing seemed off against Khabib, he showed us that he can wrestle and his clinch game is good enough not to get bullied by the American. The question, though, is how long Conor can keep that sort of pace. Cowboy’s cardio is good, and even though his run at 170 lbs was so-so, he still fought guys like Masvidal and Edwards who are at the top of the division. I really don’t like Conor at 170 lbs, I don’t think his power moves up so well as people think.
Also, even with an old Cowboy, you can’t have “bad rounds” like Conor had in rounds 3 against Nate, because Cowboy would make the most of it. Conor will certainly have success countering Cerrone’s hands but Cerrone’s reach might save him just enough to be just at the end of those counter punches. If Conor goes to the body early, then I pick Conor by TKO before the championship rounds, but I’ll pick Conor McGregor by Unanimous Decision.
Ed Gallo: I wouldn’t call it an “easy” matchup for Conor McGregor, but the path to victory is so clear and Cowboy likely hasn’t improved with age since his last fight. I can’t see Cowboy having a lot of success just kicking on the outside, and if he enters with his running straights, his go-to, that’s counter bait. McGregor himself could do damage from midrange just pot-shotting and getting his front snap kick to the body going, I don’t think his pressure needs to involve much more than staying in kicking range and giving up very little ground. The honus should be on Cowboy to move forward, and it’s the easiest way for him to lose this fight. In terms of wrestling and grappling, Cowboy has hit a few reactive doubles, but it’s not really a strength of his and McGregor doesn’t really present easy openings for that shot. I doubt they grapple, if they do, I’d expect that it’s McGregor working on top after a flash knockdown of some sort. It’s worth thinking about that Cowboy is one of the best low kickers Conor has faced, and that Eddie Alvarez was doing good work punting to the inside early in their fight. With the stance matchup, I don’t think Cowboy has a reliable setup for his low kick that doesn’t get his bell rung. As my colleagues said, if we get any recent version of McGregor in there, it should be largely one-way traffic. McGregor R2 TKO, but I won’t be happy about it.
Ben Kohn: Pretty much everything has been said. This fight, stylistically, favors Conor and his pressure game greatly. Cerrone’s durability is definitely not at its highest point by any stretch either. Aside from fighting at 170, there’s not much going for Cerrone. His submission grappling game is always a threat, but his wrestling isn’t otherworldly, and Conor’s wrestling and grappling are legitimately solid. Conor by KO in round 1 or 2 is the most likely scenario if Conor is looking to really make a statement, and I think he wants to considering everything going on. Conor McGregor by KO round 2.
Anthony Pettis vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
Sriram: Carlos Diego Ferreira has come literally from nowhere as a potential-elite, even though it seems in retrospect like it was building for a bit. Since his two-loss streak to the great Dustin Poirier and the unheralded (also great) Beneil Dariush, Ferreira has been unstoppable, and his affiliation with Fortis MMA has been vindicated by an astonishing performance over Mairbek Taisumov. A win over Pettis would be his biggest in name, even if it isn't expected to be his hardest opponent; ideally, it leaves him in position to face a top-lightweight, where he'd still be a genuinely tough out.
On the other side, very few fighters would readily go from a marquee bout against Nate Diaz to a fight against a quiet killer like CDF; Anthony Pettis might not be the most consistent winner this deep into his career, but his strength-of-schedule has scarcely waned for an instant. Pettis is growing into a bit of a glass-cannon between randomly obliterating Stephen Thompson and getting injured in every other fight, but he's still a tough test for a prospect (even one that fits snugly in skill among the star-studded lineup that Pettis has faced).
This seems straightforward, as a durable pressure-boxer against a guy who has historically lost to durable pressure-boxers. Pettis isn't a versatile-enough kicker to be able to do it on the backfoot, he isn't mobile enough moving back to defuse pressure (Ferguson had him squared up against the cage with ease), and he has counterpunching but it isn't particularly good (mostly built to prevent prolonged exchanges, and therefore isn't actually good in prolonged exchanges). Taisumov was an infinitely more threatening counterpuncher (even looking declined) than Pettis, and CDF didn't care and drowned him in volume.
CDF isn't the sharpest pressurer in terms of footwork (as he followed Rustam Khabilov around for 3 rounds) but he's proven decent in longer exchanges and utterly fearless. Against Taisumov, he looked single-minded as a pressurer (in the face of absurd firepower back at him) in a way that evoked prime 155 Rafael dos Anjos, which is self-explanatory in how it relates to Pettis. It probably doesn't take sterling footwork to compromise Pettis at this stage with pressure, just intent and initiative and the willingness to make exchanges longer than Pettis wants them to be. I'll say Ferreira finishes a Pettis who's been looking increasingly vulnerable, even if he's been historically durable. CDF via TKO3.
Danny: Anthony Pettis will never be a contender again, but he has proven himself to be one of the gamest fighters in MMA history with an absolutely nightmarish resume to speak of, and never once looking for an easy fight. He also looks like he might be kind of done. CDF looked awesome in his last win over Mairbek Taisumov, possibly a confluence of technical improvement (from CDF) and physical regression (from Taisumov), but a hell of a win to have on one’s record nonetheless. There’s still a chance that Pettis’ freakish dynamism saves his ass from a losing matchup one more time, but CDF looks and feels like the more composed product at this point. He’s more reliable moment-to-moment, his pressure and volume likely gives Showtime fits, and I just don’t know how many more times I’m supposed to pick Pettis to win fights. CDF via Unanimous Decision.
Philippe : Fight of the night! I love both fighters here! I like that Pettis’s career as a contender is behind him, and he’s now just taking awesome fights left and right. He picked a tough fight again; CDF may not be known by the mainstream but he’s very good and can definitely enters the top 10 at lightweight. I want to see some grappling in this one and some back-and-forth on the feet. Ferreira is capable enough to bully Pettis through three rounds, but Showtime is always dangerous; that said, pressure really is something he won’t ever deal with very well, and CDF became a very solid pressure fighter. I can’t wait. I love this fight. CDF by TKO round 3.
Ed: What Sriram said.
Ben: Being late to the party means it’s mostly been said, but yea, CDF is going to drown Pettis in volume and attritive damage. If you like Pettis, don’t watch this fight. CDF is, at this stage, exactly the kind of fighter to beat the hell out of Pettis. It won’t be pretty for Pretty Tony. Carlos Diego Ferreira by TKO 3.
Kyle: My pick is simple: The CDF that beat Taisumov is more than good enough to beat this version of Pettis. I expect Pettis to have more than one ‘moment’ in the fight, but that after three rounds he will have clearly lost the whole fight. Carlos Diego Ferreira by decision
Andre Fili vs. Sodiq Yusuff
Danny: One of the two great fights on this card, and certainly the more challenging to figure out. Fili has looked much better recently. Hiring his own boxing coach seems to have paid dividends, as his jab carries the brunt of his offense behind it and his ability to counter kicks + kick off his punches earned him a quick victory over Sheymon Moraes. I’m still not sure he’s disciplined or varied enough to diffuse a powerhouse counterpuncher over three rounds. Yusuff’s last performance earned him a brilliant KO from cross-countering a southpaw straight, pitching a rear hand shot just as Benitez stepped in. He’s still a far more potent combination puncher, both in singular moments and in attrition. Despite getting dropped, Sodiq showed acute awareness while hurt and never lost an ounce of focus before continuing his onslaught. That’s encouraging. Fili’s stance switching leaves his legs vulnerable to being kicked, and his defense in exchanges is usually his offense. There is still likely an outfighting gameplan to defeat Yusuff for Andre to find, but he’s just a hair too vulnerable for me to trust here. We’re still not far enough away from Fili getting dropped by a Jury backfist for me to have confidence. Sodiq Yusuff via second round TKO.
Sriram: There's some concern to be found in Yusuff losing stretches of a low-volume fight to Sheymon Moraes, a notoriously inconsistent Muay Thai stylist who threw away the Yusuff win by throwing a dumb elbow and then got killed by Fili in about two minutes. That said, Yusuff is looking like a sharp prospect at a weight-class full of promising fighters; he's really good on the counter and he can kick with Fili on the outside, and Fili's improvements would need a greater scope than we've seen to be able to handle someone with the athletic edge Yusuff will have. Fili has broken the TAM stupidity curse by bringing in a non-TAM influence, but a fight like MJ (where he just sat on the outside and high-kicked the guard to a loss) is still not too far off from where Andre is now. The division needs a Yusuff win, and he should be able to deliver; it's a tough and unique test, but a doable one, and hopefully a road to even more exciting opponents (like Burgos or Kattar). Yusuff by UD.
Philippe : Great fight! I like both fighters here. Fili been fighting at 145 lbs. forever and he improved slowly but surely through the years. I was impressed with his wrestling lately too. Yusuff is dangerous for sure and has a great future in this division, but if I gave him the power advantage I think Fili’s experience will be too much. I can see Yusuff having some good moments in there but I have to rely on Fili’s consistent effort and volume to outclass him. I expect Fili to win a masterful unanimous decision.
Kyle: I think the momentum is with Fili, and he’s still pretty young I’m not expecting his development to fall off a cliff anytime soon. Mixing up his strikes and getting the better of scrambles, I think Fili will take his licks and come through to win an entertaining decision based on his greater high-level experience, but Yusuff will show enough promise that he’ll still be an intriguing prospect going forward.
Ed: After watching Yusuff’s recent performances, I’m concerned. His development has been rapid, he has plenty of dangerous tools, coupled with his athletic pop and motion. But when those initial tools are given resistance, or a weapon is taken away or punished, he starts to hang back and let his opponent build momentum. A few of my colleagues have referred to this as “running out of ideas”. There are definitely concerns for Fili, who has almost never checked a low kick, and is likely not the kind of pocket threat that can dissuade Yusuff from bombing on him. What we have seen from Fili is toughness, persistence, and volume. His boxing-specific training has led to nice wrinkles like level changing combinations and a fairly sharp jab, I could definitely see him winning rounds. As far as hurting Yusuff, the opportunity is there to counter straight off the low kick, which Yusuff throws from a dangerous range, often naked. It’s very likely that Fili is hurt quickly, but I’m essentially betting on Fili to survive a few tough spots early, adjust to a couple looks and weapons, then pick away with straights to the head and body for a volume based decision. Fili via rocky UD.
Ben: I remember Fili being a relatively hyped prospect back in the day, and now he is the UFC vet trying to turn back someone who currently fills that role. Fili’s developments have already been laid out pretty well, as have the strengths of Yusuff and the ways this fight can play out. One of the things brought up on the podcast (make sure you check it out) was if Fili could execute an out-fighting game plan successfully for 3 rounds without getting sucked into exchanges that would lead to him getting hurt. The answer, I think, is...almost. I do think we will see a rough round 1 for Fili, and that we will see him get clocked hard or hurt badly in round 1. I also think we will see the maturity of his game shine from there as well, as he wins the next two rounds by sticking faithfully to a long distance game, peppering Yusuff with jabs, long range kicks, and avoiding pocket exchanges past the first couple of strikes. Andre Fili by UD.
Drew Dober vs. Nasrat Haqparast
Danny: Drew Dober has improved some over his last handful of fights, and can now sit down on punches, counter kicks, and punch in combination more fluidly. He’s going to need every skill he has and probably a few he doesn’t to win this fight. Haqparast is much sharper offensively; his lever punching is far less predictable in exchanges and his punch selection is quite apt, taking advantage of opponent’s reactions. His ability to hit straight shots from range will trouble Dober, who struggled a bit against Dariush’s southpaw jab. Nasrat will have a massive edge in handspeed, his output is consistent, and his performance against Silva showed a better propensity for drawing responses to exploit. I suspect the Dougboy’s toughness will make this exciting for as long as it lasts, but I don’t see a consistent path to victory for him here. Nasrat Haqparast via third round TKO.
Sriram: Haqparast has been unflatteringly compared to Kelvin Gastelum far too many times, and Dober might be the opponent against whom we see if it's more warranted than is good for him. Dober has turned into a defined power-puncher and he's impressed even in his loss to Beneil Dariush, but he isn't a particularly crafty fighter; destroying someone like Polo Reyes doesn't take a whole lot of craft, after all. That said, he is a southpaw and he can hit, and Nasrat hasn't been tested against southpaws in the UFC yet; often southpaws can grow to become used to the open-stance matchup, and Dober looked perfectly fine beating up the southpaw Dariush on the feet, so it'd be reasonable to consider him a test for the Afghan. Haqparast is the better-schooled fighter who's less dependent on massive spots of offense, he has a better idea of the game he plays (as a defined pressurer with the specific tools to make that work), and he should win, but this is a potential upset to keep an eye on. Haqparast by UD.
Philippe : Indifferent to both. Haqparast by UD.
Kyle: I think Haqparast shows promise, but despite Danny’s excellent article on him, I think he’s still very much a work-in-progress, whereas Dober knows exactly who he is. Haqparast has a really languid, janky style at times, and I think this will be his undoing here, hanging around too much in the pocket working his awkward style, or getting caught on the exit. Also, the Universe will conspire to make us as a site look stupid, so hopefully I can get on the right side of history by picking Dober to clobber him. Drew Dober by second round TKO
Ed: Can’t say I really know what I’m talking about here. The stance matchup seems interesting, as the lads pointed out, Haqparast hasn’t been tested from closed-stance by a competent striker like Dober. I’ve also heard that the great Ryan Wagner is picking Dober, so I shall as well. Drew Dober via UD.
Ben: Gastelum by UD.