UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 Staff Picks
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Still in a historic (and, it must be said, still somewhat inadvisable) time to be putting on live sports, the UFC has finally found a spot to pull out the ace in their sleeve — while claiming to have done better than ever during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, the lack of a live gate had to be a fairly big consideration in how the UFC were to use their biggest stars. While UFC 257 still isn’t close to 100% attendance, Abu Dhabi sees the return of Conor McGregor to elite action, in a fight that’s only a rematch in the most literal of terms — in the six years since McGregor defeated Dustin Poirier for the first time at featherweight, Poirier has become a completely different fighter. This time, they fight at lightweight to become the #1 in the absence of Khabib Nurmagomedov, with both finding championships and all-time great runs since their first meeting. McGregor’s win over Donald Cerrone might not have made the point that he’s still an elite presence, but a win over Dustin Poirier certainly would — and for Poirier, a win over McGregor would be yet another addition to a CV that’s rapidly looking like one of the very best in the history of 155.
In the co-main event, Bellator staple and former champion Michael Chandler makes his UFC debut, and becomes another in a long line of stars outside the UFC who have gotten immediately fast-tracked to elite opposition; like Marlon Moraes and Justin Gaethje before him, Chandler looks to prove his worth against a top-5 opponent and instantly vault into title relevance. His opponent is Dan Hooker, an unreasonably durable and terrifically potent Kiwi with a point of his own to make; with his last two fights being absolutely brutal and back-and-forth contests, '“The Hangman” looks to get back to his finishing ways and spoil one of the UFC’s more important recent signings.
The Fight Site’s MMA team brings our predictions for these two fights, either of which could produce the next man to hold the belt at lightweight.
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor II
Sriram Muralidaran: This is a weird fight, for even more reasons than the typical weirdness of a McGregor return. It raises the question of whether functional inactivity (as an elite fighter) is more detrimental to form than too much activity -- I’ve been wary of being confident in Poirier due to his historically nasty stretch of fights between Miller and Hooker, but all McGregor has done in MMA in about the same span is lose to Nurmagomedov and then beat a declined sub-elite layup in Cerrone. I’d much rather see someone training and fighting elite competition than only fighting the law for about 4 years, but there’s a point where it tips and Poirier isn’t who he was because of it, where rust is a bit more variable in effect.
In terms of the matchup, it’s a quite unforgiving one for Poirier if McGregor is still there -- not one where he has zero advantages, per se, but one where he’ll probably struggle to apply them. Starting with the ringcraft, McGregor being a dedicated pressurer puts Poirier’s issues conceding the cage to Nurmagomedov into relevance again; Poirier’s developed quite a crafty and reactive shell, but giving McGregor the opportunities to draw and work around a guard is a bad idea for anyone, and that’s the risk he runs if he’s put on the fence. To his credit, Poirier was difficult to back up for Justin Gaethje -- another terrific counterpuncher and pressurefighter -- but he could also access exchanges more safely with his jab to go on the offensive against Gaethje, buying space, where McGregor likely pressures at a more extended distance to make Poirier choose between backing up and covering distance himself (exposing him fully to counters). On the latter, Poirier’s shifting is routinely effective at closing down opponents with strong distancing and leads into his phenomenal combination work (and extended exchanges on the inside are probably Poirier’s realm here), but also presents risk nearly as regularly. For all the changes that Poirier made since getting shotgunned by Michael Johnson for his positioning, finding himself squared-up in the pocket was what got him counterpunched by Dan Hooker to clearly drop round 2.
That makes Poirier quite a simple fight for McGregor on paper -- pressure Poirier, hit the body and find routes through the guard if he’s on the fence, pull his shifts out to plant and counter when he’s between stances -- but the simple isn’t always easy. While Poirier’s tougher fights (McGregor 1, Johnson, even Miller) have come against other southpaws, Poirier’s developed lead hand also gives him some tools to fight a southpaw in a way that McGregor isn’t quite as capable of -- McGregor’s lead hand is far more of an ancillary tool, where Poirier’s is a genuine weapon in exchanges, and the jab has proven a way for Poirier to calm down and stay a bit safer. Southpaw-southpaw also results in less of an extended distance than open-stance, and Poirier isn’t defensively perfect but relies less on distance as a defensive operator than McGregor does. In addition, Poirier’s ability to get through the aforementioned nasty fights is no coincidence -- far from the glass cannon he was, Poirier has become one of the most durable and conditioned fighters I’ve ever seen in MMA somehow. This is quite worrying for a fighter who has always had a much shorter effective window, and one who hasn’t successfully worked out an elite opponent since the Obama administration.
I think this is where I’ll default to activity, since I suspect a layoff is uniquely detrimental to McGregor -- whose biggest strength has often been astounding feel for sharp counters very early, maximizing his window, and whose best showings (Aldo and Alvarez) came on quick turnarounds because of it. It’s a very winnable fight for McGregor, but between the layoff and Poirier’s edges over the distance, plus his relative competence in the pocket, I’ll take a risky bet here. Poirier by TKO4.
Ben Kohn: A lot has been said, both on the panel and by Sriram. I’ll try and summarize this simply with, what can we reasonably expect from these two? Conor will use his footwork and long strikes to pressure Dustin early, and Dustin historically has consented to the range his opponents dictate to him. Conor gets what he wants right off the bat. Dustin does not kick the legs much and has that janky body kick primarily. So kicking range is likely conceded to Conor. Conor’s advantages positionally are most likely and from there, he can peck at Dustin from range and draw out strikes to counter him on, which is what he’s best at.
From my point of view, Dustin can win this fight of course with the tools he usually uses, but he’d have to gameplan well. He cannot completely concede kicking range, at least ideally. Force Conor to lead and create collisions into the clinch. If he can do that near the fence and make this a grinding affair, he will wear Conor down and be able to use his superior cardio and volume to overwhelm a slowing Conor down. Despite Dustin having most of his success in long combinations in the pocket, Conor will likely do everything he can to avoid those, and Dustin cannot chase him recklessly. Either follow him with careful, but targeted footwork so Conor will feel that pressure and be forced to engage or let Conor go and reset the range. If he tries to chase Conor down winging shots, he likely gets clobbered. There’s also Dustin’s tendency to shift into range to land his shots when he has to cross a longer distance. It’s left him vulnerable before, and he would need to be on his game defensively when doing so, or dat left.
What makes me doubt Dustin can pull this off is simply his performance in the Hooker fight. Hooker was able to draw Dustin off the game he successfully used from rounds 3-5, getting Dustin to fight wild and defensively irresponsible, while also hurting Dustin quite badly in the process. It’s not a good sign when Hooker is landing over 60% of his strikes on you. Dustin’s ability to remain focused here will be a question mark coming in, and I don’t know if he can avoid being drawn into less than advantageous positions for himself here. I gotta go against what my heart wants, and say Conor McGregor by KO within 2 rounds.
Ed Gallo: Time to talk myself into a Dustin Poirier win. The other side of the argument is pretty clear - Conor McGregor has better ranged weapons, so it’s essentially his choice whether he pressures hard or encourages Poirier to come forward. Poirier is not defensively responsible enough to lead across distance without getting countered early, and his defensive ringcraft is not competent enough to avoid being put in bad spots if McGregor comes out hard. However, many would agree that if Poirier survives later into the second round, McGregor should lose a lot of his pop and mobility, making those advantages far less pronounced. So how can Poirier navigate the early going in the fight? The obvious answer is to kick, McGregor is a bit vulnerable even to naked low kicks (see: Eddie Alvarez fight), and Poirier has demonstrated at least conceptual proficiency as a kicker. Unfortunately, his hips are jacked up and it makes it physically difficult for him to kick.
Another option, although rather unlikely, is that McGregor does come out on fire, expends a ton of energy trying to put Poirier away early, and Poirier survives. His defensive guard isn’t the tightest, as seen in their first meeting, but if Poirier refuses to lead early on, how else will that “KO within 60 seconds” prophecy come true? The most realistic way for Dustin Poirier to navigate this fight early is to close distance with his feet and use the versatility of his lead hand to neutralize the counter threat. We’ve seen Poirier pick at and provoke counter punches like Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez with varied timing and speeds on combinations, if he can get himself within punching range against McGregor, it’s reasonable to expect that kind of work. We’ve seen shifting combinations out of Poirier to close distance as well, I am really hoping Poirier understands the danger in trying to close distance in such an exposed manner. However, if he can get himself through that early danger and at the very least reach the point where McGregor is a bit more flat, I think the fight is up for grabs, it could become a drag-out war - and that’s where Poirier thrives. He’s got an unstoppable motor, a great chin up at lightweight, he works the body, and if McGregor’s footwork starts to fall apart as it has in the past, I could see Poirier putting him on the cage for extended periods. As a wrestler, Poirier’s one solid weapon is his double leg on the fence.
This is all an ideal, fantasy scenario at the end of the day. I understand the more likely route, but there’s a strong possibility McGregor is a bit aged and shopworn and doesn’t have the exact potency we’ve seen from him in the past. That could make a massive difference. So I’m going to double down and pick Dustin Poirier by decision.
Zach Makovsky :A bit over six years ago and down a weight class, it took McGregor 1:46 to put Dustin away with a long left hook and a couple hammerfists for good measure. Since, Poirier has had a relentless march of competition, almost always grueling, bloody battles and he’s come out of it.... more durable? Certainly not draining oneself to get down to featherweight and having camps not revolve around weight cutting was part of the equation. Fighting with a bit less recklessness and a bit more purposefulness along with the defensive development of his glorious crawfish shell is a bigger part. Additionally, he’s become increasingly sharp on the counter.
Conor is more difficult to gauge at this point because we’ve seen so little of him. From the boxing hiatus, to the unique problems presented by Khabib, to the 40 second obliteration of Cowboy, I’m having a little trouble envisioning what he’ll look like after crisscrossing weight classes and sports. I hear he has predicted a finish in less than a minute and although putting weight into anything people say leading into a fight, isn’t recommended, I also don’t think Conor lies about his intentions. If he slams on the gas from the start as he did in the first Diaz fight and kind of did in his most recent outing with Cerrone, I could see it backfiring yet again. I would prefer to see a more measured approach akin to the second fight with Diaz, where he took center, gave Diaz some different looks, feinted to get his kicking game going and as always be ready to pounce at any retaliation with his amazing counter left. Always reestablish the distance and limit any kind of in pocket, lengthier exchanges where Poirier thrives.
Despite the 60 second prediction, I see this as more likely and I can’t quite see how Poirier consistently gets to his range without taking big shots. I think Conor leans on his kicking game to eventually open up a shot from up the middle, an uppercut or knee or front kick that puts Poirier away. McGregor by TKO.
Mateusz Fenrych: McGregor did predict the 60-second KO as Zach says, but he was also to be heard saying in a later interview that he wouldn’t mind the fight going into the later rounds to prove a few people wrong re; his stamina and durability, so it’s hard to take him at word.
For the purpose of this preview though, I’m going to assume we get a version of McGregor who hasn’t snorted all of his in-fight acuity away, and we see a version of a 31-year-old prime athlete who should juuust still be in his prime.
Personally I don’t think it would be an amazing idea for McGregor to drag the fight out, against someone who can keep a pace and tank damage like Poirier can these days (hard to see the sort of clipped shot that McGregor downed him with last time have a similar effect on Saturday).
However, McGregor is a far more accurate puncher than most of Poirier’s opponents, and while Poirier’s lovely shifting guard has done him many favours and struck many analysts down with uncomfortable tumescence, it isn’t as consistent as I’d like it to be; he can still be seen double-forearm-guarding his way through exchanges on occasion, and Conor is not the sort of fighter that you want to be static with a static guard against.
However, Poirier has tools that I can see working, like my colleagues have pointed out. Pace is one; while McGregor fancies himself a superior boxer, I feel like Poirier actually has the more broadly useful boxing game in the cage on Saturday - he is far busier naturally, popping out feelers, disruptors, feints, level-changes and bombs. McGregor’s hands are a little more single-minded. While it’s boringly reductive to refer to Dat Left endlessly, setting his opponents up for his long rear strikes is obviously the name of his game - Poirier’s process and combinations are a little more varied, more improvised, and longer (if these two get to trading at any point, I would expect Poirier to have more ideas in the pocket offensively).
McGregor’s big weapons are oh-so-dangerous for a man of Poirier’s make-up though. Pressure-counterpunching just seems perfect to set Dustin up for a fall, unfortunately. I dearly, dearly love the man, but he is a man who doesn’t respond well to intense pressure. McGregor is perfectly capable of administering that and backing Poirier up, which snap-kicks and straights and the odd lead-uppercut, and against Alvarez, he showed a very nicely tuned ability to bait someone onto hyper-accurate counters.
Dustin for all his smarts, often does not fight smart - witness his panic against Khabib, which reverted him to a windmilling beast when given the opportunity to press - while McGregor, even when getting his shit smashed in by Khabib still had the presence of mind to exact a measure of success nobody else has managed.
I can, unfortunately, see Poirier getting lured into a TKO2, assuming McGregor is anywhere near his level.
Otherwise, I would like nothing more than for Dustin to attrite McGregor’s chin and body into a late stoppage and in some tiny, small way, put some small ills of the universe to rights…
Feño Sky: Picking Conor to catch Dustin early when he messes up his feet after an entry is the clear logical choice. Therefore, Dustin’s somehow going drag him into deep waters and kill him. Dustin TKO Round 4
Haxx: Unless Comby McGronkles is completely gone, there should be 6-8 minutes where he is operating at a striking range, dynamic and adaptive pace that is all his. Dustin must repeatedly cross the trenches to manufacture repeated pocket exchanges - as tough a stress-test for his defensive improvements and messy footwork as you'll get. The age-old question is what Combo McShakeshack can accomplish in that time to end or at least damage Poirier to the degree where it remains ‘his’ fight from that point on. The answer is 'probably enough'.
There are ways Poirier could manufacture exchanges that suit a goal of 'survive to thrive', but they lean heavily on avoiding mental lapses and demonstrating a genuine sense of self-awareness and improved footwork. Poirier cannot allow 'empty' time in this fight - he needs to be working safely for every moment in the octagon, or Canaan McYipyap will punish and punish hard. It is possible (and I would love to see it happen), but it is hard to have faith in Dustin’s footwork, particularly under the pressure Casey McKumquat is likely to apply. Prediction: If it's Conor McGregor, probably a TKO by round 2. If it's Cider McSprinkles (or any comparable shadow of the man), Dustin by 4.
Kyle McLachlan: I wondered how crappy McGregor would look against Cerrone and he wiped him out with ease. Okay, ‘Cowboy’ is shot to bits but it basically just reminded me to underestimate McGregor at my peril. Therefore--and because the MMA gods rarely allow us nice things--I don’t see much point in analysing this one; McGregor will clobber Poirier early, much as he did in their first fight, years and improvement be damned. Conor McGregor by KO round 1
Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandler
Ed: The path to victory for both fighters is too clear for comfort. For Chandler, he has avenues as a striker and as a wrestler. Dan Hooker is very vulnerable to the body and not so great off the backfoot, Chandler’s hard pressuring style and aggressive body kicking (a relatively recent addition to his game) spells trouble. If he can blast Hooker to the cage with his power straights and round cage-cutting tools, I trust him to wrestle effectively on the cage as he has in the past. Hooker’s wrestling is not great - he and Poirier both looked fairly incompetent in that regard during their fight, and it’s been a problem for Hooker as far back as Hatsu Hioki (who is not a good leg attacker). It’s also interesting to think about the fact that Dustin Poirier had multiple chances at guillotines vs. Hooker. Chandler has developed a wicked ten-finger guillotine that he hips into to put his opponents on their backs, it could be extremely dangerous for Hooker if they end up in a front headlock position.
On the other hand, Chandler is a bit of a mark for Hooker’s favorite striking weapons. He was jabbed up by Will Brooks (there’s a backstory to that performance, but I won’t get into it), and his constant level changing works well to disguise his various threats, but it also puts him in major danger against the intercepting knee of Hooker. Even against the wrestling threat, the chokes of Hooker could definitely come into play. They don’t call him the Hangman for nothing.
I could really see either guy getting their way here. The X factor that swings my decision is the matchup of physical attributes. Chandler is absurdly explosive with a near-endless motor, even when he tires, he is able to quickly rally and continue performing at a remarkable level athletically. His chin is above average still at this point, but that would be the concern for many. Hooker on the other hand is cheater-durable, hits hard, but has a limited gas tank. I could see Chandler coming out hot, blasting his way to the cage, wrestling a ton during the first round and taking away a lot of Hooker’s dangerousness by tiring him out. It’s really a toss-up fight at the end of the day, but I’m going to pick Chandler by decision.
Sriram: Whatever Ed says, he’s the Chandler expert. Impossible not to appreciate Hooker’s durability and most of his attributes generally, even if he’s somewhat shallow skill-wise — using a lot of the tools of the “technician”, the jab and the lowkick and the constant lateral movement on the outside, but never really prepared defensively to deal with anyone eating his single layer of counters and continuing to punch with him (as both Felder and Poirier did). He’s almost an action-fighter despite himself, where his vision for his skillset is literally always cleaner than the final result, regardless of the level of competition. On the other hand, he does seem to be built as a “don’t you dare wrestle me” fighter who can reliably dissuade the overhand/shot changeup or reckless pocket entry in general with the threat of the knee/front choke. Interesting fight and Chandler is certainly on the “level” of Hooker — which tends to be the criticism of great outside-of-the-UFC fighters going right into top UFC fights — but could see it either way.
Ben: If Chandler doesn’t blow Hooker out of the water with his sheer explosiveness and power, I think Hooker is going to KO him. I actually like Chandler as a fighter, he’s damn good and probably does better against Poirier for instance than Hooker did.
That being said, Chandler is going to be at a ridiculous range disadvantage and Hooker thrives on matchups where he can impose that length and size on his opponents, picking at them from range with long kicks and landing those gorgeous intercepting knees on level changes. Chandler does love a level change. I’m not happy to say it, because I do want Chandler to win, and I absolutely wouldn’t be shocked if he just overwhelms Hooker with either power or just murders him with his wrestling. He does have a tank for days, but I’m going to go with Hooker via KO round 1.
Zach : I think if Chandler gets it done, it will be through a wrestling heavy performance. He’s got all the necessary abilities to make it a one sided and one-note type of fight. Corral, throw some heavy shots to takedown, control position, ground and pound, ride, mat return, repeat.
However, this being a long awaited ufc debut, I feel he’s going to be looking to make a very specific kind of statement and will want the KO. I think this will be a poor decision as he will get picked apart until his takedown attempts become far more desperate and obvious and he will get finished thereafter. Hooker by TKO.
Kyle: I’ve never really been too hyped on Chandler, although he has done some excellent stuff in the sport. Quite frankly though he hasn’t looked brilliant against a top tier fighter for a while, and the ghost of Benson Henderson doesn’t count. It wasn’t that long ago he got poleaxed against a legit 145lber (coincedentally the last truly elite fighter he fought in ‘Pitbull’).
Now Hooker isn’t all that either IMO but he’s a humongous 155lber, is made of absolute granite, and has perhaps the best strategist in the sport behind him with the might of City Kickboxing in his corner. Hooker is a lesser fighter than Volk and Izzy, so I feel he doesn’t process the information like those guys do, the equivalent of running a penny farthing bicycle with a super computer. But I think he’ll be fine here; big and stronk and stay off your back being basic information even he can process, and his offensive tools will be too much for Chandler--past prime as aforementioned by my reckoning--to handle, and the Bellator import will crumble more and more as the fight goes on. Early success for Chandler turns into him wishing he’d stayed in the warm embrace of Uncle Scott. There will be blood. Dan Hooker by unanimous decision
Feño: This is a very interesting match-up but it would be even more interesting if Chandler was younger or this was a 5 round fight. I feel like Chandler has been slowing down for a while and although most of his physical toolset is still there, his performances have been hit or miss. On a good day, Chandler’s striking looks sharp, well put together and well connected to his wrestling that is still as dynamic as it comes; on a bad day, Chandler can look like your generic short wrestler looking for overhands and open space shots who can’t accomplish from top position. I think Hooker should be vulnerable to Chandler’s striking if Michael shows up with a decent plan, but he’s absurdly durable, hard to both take and keep down and has a game that is at its most effective punishing short fighters. Fatigue shouldn’t be an issue until late in round 3 for both fighters, but both tend to lose their ability to finish late. Dan Hooker UD.