USA Olympic Wrestling Trials: Men's Freestyle Staff Picks
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The action starts tomorrow - the best wrestlers in the United States will be facing off in a tournament to decide our 2021 Olympians. Three of our wrestling analysts sounded off and gave their predictions for who will win each weight in men’s freestyle.
57 kg
Ed Gallo: Nick Suriano. It’s all coming together - Spencer Lee is out, Thomas Gilman just got pinned by Zach Sanders, Daton Fix didn’t look so hot at NCAAs. That leaves one man - Nick Suriano, who has looked world-level ready in his past two international competitions in France and Italy. He can shut down any man’s offense and make it a one takedown match, and his nose for scoring opportunities in those moments is one of his best traits. Suriano will have to wrestle Gilman for a crack at the winner of the other semifinal (probably Daton Fix), but if he wins that match I think he’ll be the favorite to take the spot. Barring a big jump in levels from Vito Arujau, I think Suriano is our best chance to win some matches at 57 kg.
*It was later revealed that Nick Suriano has withdrawn from the trials due to CoVid-19.
Okay, so with Suriano out, will they redraw the bracket? Or will Gilman just walk to the finals? I have no idea who to pick now. I’d like to pick Vito, but he lost fairly wide to Gilman very recently, and I believe Fix beat him wide last time they wrestled as well. If it comes down to Gilman vs. Fix again, I think I’ll have to take Gilman.
Jack Hurley: Like Ed, I was originally planning to pick Nick Suriano. If he’s out, I’m inclined to take Gilman. He has a pretty good draw, with Gross (or maybe Joe Colon now) in the semis before hitting most likely Fix or Arujau. He seems to do well with gameplanning and adjusting to specific opponents, and that advantage could grow now that he has Cael Sanderson in his corner. He’s really good at winning the tight matches, and he’s one of the only guys who seems to have a decent balance between offense and defense. Vito is probably too loose with his positioning to beat Gilman at this point, which leaves Fix as the most dangerous opponent. They’ve gone back and forth, but Gilman won the last meeting in early 2020. Gilman also seems to do better as he gets more matches with a given opponent, which bodes well for his chances there. A lot could happen at this weight, but he’s the guy I trust the most to wrestle at least close to his best every time.
Dan Sweeney: Daton Fix. To me this weight very likely comes down to Gilman vs Fix (especially with the recent news of Nick Suriano & Spencer Lee both being forced to withdraw). This would then be a rematch of the 2019 World Team Trials where Fix won 2 of 3, outscoring Gilman 17-7. Of course, the two also squared off at the 2018 World Team Trials, with Gilman winning both of those matches. If this does end up being the finals matchup, I expect it to be competitive, but think Fix will edge it out. One guy I’m going to watch closely is Vito Arujai - his length, athleticism, and technical creativity give him a chance to beat anyone in a given match. I wouldn’t be surprised if he somehow finds a way to the finals.
65 kg
Ed: Yianni Diakomihalis. I had my doubts after he dropped a match to Joey McKenna and post-prime Vladimer Khinchegashvili, but now it seems Yianni D is back and better than ever. Multiple wins over James Green and a tech fall over Khinchegashvili bode well for his future chances. This is especially important considering we still need to qualify the weight, and Khinchegashvili will likely be in our way at the Last Chance Qualifier. After being pinned by Augustin Destribats at the Pan-Am Qualifier, Zain Retherford has looked solid, and his 6-0 win over Bajrang Punia could imply that he’s in rare form. It’s hard to predict Yianni beating Zain to make the team, since he hasn’t done it in that context yet, but I’m feeling it, he’s the guy. He’ll have to beat Jordan Oliver again to get a shot at Zain, but I think Oliver peaked in 2019 and his window may be closed.
Jack: Another weight where it feels like there are several viable contenders, but I like Zain Retherford. He’ll have his hands full with either Anthony Ashnault in the quarters, James Green or Joey McKenna in the semis, and then probably Diakomihalis or Oliver in the finals. He’s good at smothering the guys who want to work from the outside, and can out-handfight anyone who wants to go toe to toe on the inside. He’s struggled with Yianni quite a bit, splitting matches with him in 2019, but in the final match in September he seemed to have figured things out. Like Gilman, working with Sanderson at the Nittany Lion Wrestling Club has to help when it come to repeated encounters with the same opponent. I agree with Ed that the long disruption was probably bad news for Oliver, and he doesn’t feel like the threat that he did thirteen months ago. His improvements on the edge of the mat made it close in 2019, but even then, Retherford was able to score when he needed to and defend when he needed to. Once again, I prefer the guy with consistency and ability to win tight matches.
Dan: Yianni Diakomihalis. 65 kg, like pretty much every weight this year, is ultra competitive. Like at 57 kg, I’m thinking it is very likely we see a rematch of the 2019 World Team Trials at 65 kg as well, with Yianni and Zain Retherford facing off again. From what I can tell, Yianni’s record since his wrestle-off loss to Retherford in September 2019 is 21-2, which includes 3 wins over World medalist James Green and tech falls over Bryce Meredith, Sammy Sasso, Tariq Wilson, and Anthony Ashnault. Interestingly, one of those losses came against #5 seed Joey McKenna who should not be underestimated at this weight.
74 kg
Ed: Jordan Burroughs. I picked him against David Taylor as well, and it didn’t turn out to be that dumb of a take! I definitely understand the Dake perspective - in the past two years Burroughs has lost to Zaurbek Sidakov, Isaiah Martinez, David Taylor and Frank Chamizo. Kyle Dake hasn’t lost since his 2018 Yarygin match with Gadzhimagomedov, which he avenged in dominant fashion at Worlds. In terms of momentum, Dake has become larger, more athletic, and more freestyle savvy, while Burroughs appears to have lost a step. On the other hand, Burroughs is 7-1 against Kyle Dake, and he’s very good at winning wrestling matches. I’m not going to bother thinking about the match dynamics too much, I just trust Burroughs, it’s a gut pick.
Jack: This is a really tough pick for me. It’s really tough to pick against Jordan Burroughs, even at his age. But I really think Dake is the best guy at the weight. He nearly had him in 2017, and he’s only gotten better since then. In particular, I think he’s gotten better at managing a match, dictating where on the mat and in what ties and positions the action will take place. In his losses to Sidakov and Chamizo, he’s shown at least some vulnerability to guys who control a match and know how to funnel you to their preferred positions. Dake has also improved his attacks and his top game, which gives him a little more margin for error. He can fall behind by a takedown or two and still have a way to get back in the match, something it didn’t seem like he had in the past against Burroughs. Of course, Dake hasn’t wrestled anyone with the offensive abilities of Jordan Burroughs in the last three years, and it sometimes takes a bit of mat time to adjust to an opponent with good speed and timing. Burroughs is also great at adjusting over the course of a best-of-three series, and in particular tends to dominate if it goes to a third match. After watching his disappointment in Rio, it would be quite the story for Burroughs to make it back to the Olympics. I’ll definitely enjoy watching these matches no matter what happens. I really do think, though, that Dake has the edge this time.
Dan: Kyle Dake. Since Dake’s 2 losses to Burroughs at the 2017 World Team Trials, he is 47-1. These wins include wins over 2x World Champion Frank Chamizo, 5x World/Olympic medalist Jabrayil Hasanov (who he beat 4 times), 3x NCAA Champ Alex Dieringer, 2x NCAA Champ Zahid Valencia, 3x NCAA Champ Jason Nolf, and 2x NCAA Champ Vincenzo Joseph. 24 of those wins have come via tech fall with zero points given up, which is a pretty incredible statistic. Now, of course (and as Ed mentioned), to date Burroughs has dominated the series between himself and Dake. If you go back and watch the finals of the 2017 World Team Trials, each match was very close and could have gone either way. I think Dake has gotten a lot better since then and I just don’t see him losing 2 matches to anyone, including Burroughs.
86 kg
Ed: David Taylor. He’s the 2018 World champion, and at that time he looked like one of the most dominant wrestlers in the world. He hasn’t been quite as ferocious since returning from injury, but he hasn’t lost and the only person to come close to beating him was Jordan Burroughs. His main contender here, to me, is Zahid Valencia. I think when they’re both fresh, Zahid could pose him some problems with his speed and the way he can create angles on clean attacks, but he has also demonstrated that you can show him down with aggressive hand-fighting - that’s kind of Taylor’s thing. I could see Valencia making it through and taking a match off Taylor, but I will definitely side with the more proven commodity.
Jack: David Taylor. For all of Taylor’s offensive firepower and scrambling ability, I was impressed by the way he managed the match against Jordan Burroughs and really locked him down (at least the first four minutes or so). Taylor didn’t exactly pour it on Gabe Dean, but Dean has been wrestling at a very high level over the past few months. Taylor also ran through Myles Martin back in July, so I think his ability to score is at least mostly still there. I don’t think any of these guys can hang with Taylor except maybe Zahid Valencia, who has been spectacular since his senior year of college. The way Jordan Burroughs was able to score on Valencia when they wrestled, though, has to be encouraging for Taylor. He tends to get into wide-open matches, which should favor Taylor’s dynamism, scrambling ability, and gas tank.
Dan: Bo Nickal. Most of my picks have been pretty conventional up to this point, but I’m going with Bo at 86! I don’t have any inside information, but I think Bo matches up pretty well with David Taylor and has the technical prowess and physical attributes to pull off the upset. One matchup I hope happens is Bo vs Zahid Valencia. Zahid has the length and explosiveness to give anyone at this weight problems and I think, assuming his conditioning is up to par, he is a real threat to win the weight as well.
97 kg
Ed: J’den Cox! His momentum is undeniable, and I feel that these two have had plenty of looks at each other in the training room at the Olympic Training Center. Cox is by far the wrestler with the higher IQ, meaning more exposure works in his favor. Snyder, on the other hand, tends to do worse in rematches. Perhaps Snyder’s size will be a factor, but Cox looks absolutely massive and as mobile as ever up at 97. His ability to swiftly get to low leg attacks and score from angles is going to give Snyder fits when he chooses to pull the trigger, and his defense is the best in the world. Cox is an incredibly difficult wrestler to beat once, let alone twice, I think Snyder has met his match domestically.
Jack: This is a two-horse race between J’den Cox and Kyle Snyder. I wish I had more time to watch a lot of tape for this one, because it’s a really interesting clash of styles. My initial read is that Snyder is a little too plodding, and will have a hard time with Cox’s lateral motion and timing. Snyder’s relentless, and maybe pulling on Cox’s head will prevent him from getting his motion and fakes going; J’den himself seemed to respect Snyder’s ability to wear opponents down and get them to make mistakes in his press conference last week. It would be cool to see this series go to three matches and watch them try to make adjustments once they get the chance to feel each other’s wrestling. In the end, though, I think Cox will be able to walk Snyder into a few attacks, and Snyder will be unable to get to his own offense at the rate he’s used to.
Dan: J’den Cox. It seems exceedingly likely we’ll have a J’den Cox vs Kyle Snyder finals. Since Cox’s loss to Serdar Boke in July of 2018 he has basically been untouchable, with a 26-0 record, 11 of those wins coming by fall/tech fall. In those 26 matches, Cox only gave up 12 points. I think it is fair to say, though, that Cox hasn’t had any recent matches against someone of Snyder’s caliber (Snyder is a 3x World/Olympic champion). I admittedly haven’t spent much time at all studying either Cox’s or Snyder’s games so I don’t have an educated take on how the matchup may play out stylistically, but I’ll be very curious to see Snyder’s offensive approach considering how difficult Cox is to score on.
125 kg
Ed: Gable Steveson, if he shows up. Otherwise - Mason Parris. I thought he would be the guy after the RTC Cup, and I was even more sure of it after he manhandled Mason Parris. I think he’ll get past Parris for the fourth time, and beat Gwiazdowski in two straight matches. He’s that good. I’m not sure how I feel about him vs. the rest of the world - he’s not necessarily a small heavyweight, but there’s a lot of wiggle room when you set a 125 kg weight limit. Wrestlers like Taha Akgul and Geno Petriashvili are going to be tough to beat. Thinking ahead, I think I’d prefer he have to wrestle Akgul than Petriashvili, largely because of the difference in foot speed.
Jack: Gable Steveson. I don’t have too much to say, other than that Nick Gwiazdowski didn’t look quite himself at RTC Cup and might have more to offer at Olympic Trials than he did back then. Even if he does better, though, I don’t see him beating Steveson. Gable’s handfighting, his movement, his entries, and his finishes are all the best in the country. Almost two full years ago, they had a very close series at Final X. With the development Steveson’s made from his freshman to junior year of college, I think there’s not much doubt that he’s now the top guy at this weight.
Dan: Gable Steveson. Gable seems to be on another planet right now in terms of offensive capability and I’m not sure there is another heavyweight that can beat him in his current form. Nick Gwiazdowski does have 2 wins over him at the 2019 World Team Trials, but Gable was able to avenge those losses this past December with a 4-1 victory over Gwiz.