USA Wrestling Olympic Trials Preview: Women's Freestyle
Photo: Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images
Team USA will finally choose its representatives for Tokyo at the Olympic Trials this week. Unlike in Greco-Roman and men’s freestyle, the women’s team has already qualified all six weight classes, meaning the winner at this tournament punches her ticket to the Games. Those who qualified their respective weight classes, either by placement at the 2019 world championships or in the 2020 Pan-Am Olympic qualifier, will receive byes to the final best-of-three series. As a result, each field will consist of a challenge tournament to earn the remaining spot in that final series on Friday and then the finals themselves on Saturday.
The US is pretty strong in women’s freestyle, with a stated goal of taking the team title away from Japan. Each team member will be a serious contender for a spot on the medal stand, and some for gold. While this might make some weights seem less competitive, we’re reminded every year at world team and especially Olympic trials that wrestling is full of surprises. Here are my picks for the top three spots at each weight:
50 kg
The wrestler sitting in the finals here is Sarah Hildebrandt, who will benefit greatly from the extra recovery time. She won a world silver medal in 2018 after cutting from 55 to 53 kg; after a disappointing world championships in 2019, she decided to come all the way down to 50. It’s worked out so far, as she beat 2019 world team member Whitney Conder to earn the right to go to the Pan-Am qualifier last year, then won it to put herself in the finals. Conder herself is probably the next toughest at the weight, with wins over most of the other wrestlers here. Victoria Anthony was the rep a few years ago back when the lowest weight was 48 kg and nearly won a world medal, but has struggled a bit since then. Alyssa Lampe completely buzzsawed through 2019 Senior Nationals and still dominates everyone outside the top two or three at this weight. Erin Golston is kind of undersized at the weight and it always feels like she hasn’t fully lived up to her potential, but she’s been wrestling well lately. Then there’s a huge group of young talent, like Emily Shilson, Alleida Martinez, and McKayla Campbell. Also notable is Sage Mortimer, who a few years ago was the first girl to place at Fargo in the boys’ Greco-Roman tournament.
Conder is probably the favorite in the challenge tournament, since she owns wins over the other top seeds. The women’s brackets are large, partly owing to the large number of qualifying spots given to the college national tournaments, and a lot of the early round action at this weight should be fun. Wrestlers like Golston and Anthony are likely to put on some excitement even if they end up a couple matches short of the final series. There are a lot of wrestlers here who will be in contention for years to come, and we’ll get a good look at them here.
In the finals, I expect it to be all Hildebrandt. She can put people away quickly with her leg lace, and she can grind out close ones as well. Unless someone like Conder or Anthony has really jumped levels during quarantine, it’s her spot to lose.
53 kg
Like Hildebrandt, Jacarra Winchester cut down for the Olympic year and immediately cemented herself as the top wrestler in the country. She had reached higher highs at her old weight (2019 world champion), but she took a loss in January to Sweden’s Sofia Matsson and is part of a pack of international contenders if she makes it to Tokyo. The top of this weight is actually mostly former 55s cutting down, including 2019 Senior Nationals champion Dominique Parrish. Behind her in the seeding are Areana Villaescusa, Alex Hedrick, and Ronna Heaton. Katherine Shai is one of the longest-tenured athletes in any of the three fields this year making one last run at an Olympic spot, and wrestled really well when she captured the 2020 Senior National title back in October. This weight also has its share of young up-and-comers, including Felicity Taylor and Jasslyn Gallegos.
Winchester is an easy pick to win the weight, seeing as she’s already beaten the other top contenders in the past year or two. She’s improved continually on the senior level, and I’m looking forward to seeing her at the Olympics. To make the finals, I’ll take Parrish. Shai makes the challenge finals in the final tournament of her career to finish third on the ladder.
57 kg
The biggest star in US women’s wrestling, Helen Maroulis, has settled at this weight and will be looking for her second Olympic gold. She missed over a year of wrestling due to concussions, but seemed to be close to her old self in early 2020 when she beat Jenna Burkert and Alli Ragan to earn the spot at Pan-Ams. Maroulis went on to dominate that event and qualified the weight class, giving her a free pass to the best-of-three. Burkert has the 2019 world team member at this weight and holds the top seed in the challenge tournament. Yet another 2019 world teamer (up at 59 kg), Alli Ragan, holds the two seed and has two world medal to her name as well. The breakout star of the pandemic era, Xochitl Mota-Pettis, is also in the bracket after winning the Last Chance qualifier over the weekend. Her first big moment was pinning Ragan at Senior Nationals in October, and the two would meet again in the semis if seeds hold. After that is a large group that feels a notch below the top guns, Abby Nette most notable among them. Lauren Louive made Final X in 2019 but barely qualified for this field and will be seeded tenth, which goes to show how deep the field is.
Mota-Pettis is improving rapidly, but Ragan had a poor tournament at Senior Nationals and I think will be much sharper this time. I’ll pick her to make the finals of the challenge tournament along with Burkert. Although the seeds suggest that Burkert is the stronger competitor, Ragan actually beat Burkert to make the team in 2018 but had to withdraw from the world championships due to injury. I think she’s just more skilled, and I expect her to repeat that performance to make it to the finals against Maroulis. As I mentioned, Maroulis beat Ragan a little over a year ago by a score of 2-2. Ragan, who was training at Iowa at the time, tried to make the match a low-scoring, brutal affair, with lots of hard clubs and control ties. Maroulis was able to score one takedown and win on criteria. The match showed a viable path to victory for Ragan, but it was also Maroulis’ first match back from her injuries. She widened the margins in her matches at Pan-Ams, and I think by now is back to the peak of her powers. I think she sweeps the series to make her second Olympic team.
62 kg
The established top dog at this weight is Kayla Miracle. Unlike some of the other weight classes, the battle for the top spot is very competitive. The challenge tournament will be competitive as well; Mallory Velte was a world bronze medalist in 2018, yet she’s the three seed here. Maya Nelson nearly made the world team up at 65 kg, and holds the top seed in the challenge tournament. There’s also Macey Kilty, who has multiple age-level world medals and has finally started to break through at the senior level in the past year. Kilty and Nelson are part of the trend of women training at RTCs, which have already been huge for the development of men’s freestyle wrestlers. Senior level mainstays like Jennifer Page and Julia Salata are in here as well and have shown they can make the top seeds pay if they make mistakes.
Even picking who makes the final of the challenge tournament isn’t easy. Velte made the 2018 world team by beating Miracle and wound up with a bronze medal, so you can’t really write her off. I’ve always thought highly of Kilty, but in her first couple years wrestling at the senior level, she made a lot of mistakes and didn’t always finish her shots. She’s finally breaking through, though, and notched a win over Velte at Captains’ Cup in February. I think she’ll do it again and hit Nelson, which is a pretty compelling match. I don’t have a ton to go on and unfortunately don’t have time to give it the analysis it deserves, but I’ll pick Nelson to win it. Then I think she gives Miracle a tough two or three matches, but Miracle is able to get to legs a little bit more and I think she claims the spot.
68 kg
After going up and beating world champion Adeline Gray back in January, Tamyra Mensah-Stock is back down to her familiar weight. In 2016, she upset Elena Pirozhkova but then failed to qualify the weight. Things are different this time, as she sealed Team USA’s spot in the Olympics back in September 2019 by winning the world championship. Forrest Molinari, a young star who was close to a world medal in 2019 down at 65 kg, headlines the challenge tournament field. Also in the mix are Alexandria Glaude, Ashlynn Ortega, and Alara Boyd. The one to keep your eye on, though, is Kennedy Blades. Still in high school, she won Last Chance this past weekend to qualify and earned the third seed. She might not be ready for Molinari or Glaude yet in terms of physicality, but she’s rising much faster than I expected.
I can’t imagine picking anyone other than Mensah-Stock to win this weight. She’s arguably the best in the world, and I don’t think any of these women will score more than a couple points on her. Thinking about who her finals opponent will be is a bit more interesting; I’ll take Molinari over Blades in the final of the challenge tournament.
76 kg
Like it’s been for most of the last decade, this weight is the Adeline Gray show. After shockingly failing to medal in Rio, she’ll be looking to finally add an Olympic gold to her five word titles. Among the group trying to unseat her is veteran Victoria Francis, who was fifth in the world at the non-Olympic weight of 72 kg in 2019. There’s also Precious Bell and Dymond Guilford, who lived together as teenagers and call each other sisters. The two have gone back and forth in their matches over the years, but thankfully they’re on opposite sides of the bracket this time. The rest of the field is a mix of wrestlers who’ve been around for a while, like Randi Beltz and Jackie Cataline, and newcomers, like Nkechinyere Nwankwo and Sydnee Kimber.
I think Bell and Guilford hit in the final of the challenge tournament. They’ve both made clear improvement over the past few years, and I think at least one of them will represent the US and do it well if Gray ever retires. I’ll pick Bell to win this time around and make the final series. To win there and make the team, though, it’s all Adeline Gray.